Gome Retail (00493.HK): The effects of the decline in traditional business dragging down performance transformation in 2019 still need to be observed

中金公司 · Apr 1, 2020 00:00 · Researches

　　2019 业绩低于我们预期

　　国美零售公布2019 年未经审核的业绩：实现收入594.83 亿元，同比-7.6%；归母净亏损25.9 亿元，对应每股亏损0.12 元，相比2018 年净亏损48.9 亿元有所收窄，但仍低于我们预期，主因传统家电3C 业务表现承压，以及财务成本高企等所致。现阶段公司正处于战略转型调整期，后续转型效果仍需要观察。

　　发展趋势

　　1、下半年收入端下滑幅度加大，主因传统家电3C 业务表现欠佳所致。2019 年营收同比-7.6%，其中1H/2H 营收同比分别-1.1%/-15.2%，下半年下滑幅度有所加大，预计与行业竞争加剧有关，全年可比同店下滑4.45%，同时公司亦主动调整门店网络，关闭部分亏损门店，带来收入下滑。全年实现总GMV 同比+2.7%至1361 亿元，其中美店GMV 同比+101%，县域店GMV 同比+61%，新业务占比持续提升。门店方面，2019 年底网点数净增480 家至2602 家，新开/关闭门店数分别为1110/630 家，县域店总数扩展至1026 家，收入占比提升至7.07%，公司计划2020 年新开县域店2000 家，进一步加强低线市场布局。

　　2、毛利率有所提升，财务费用高企。得益于商品销售结构改善，2019 全年综合毛利率17.9%（Page2 为商品销售毛利率15.3%），同比提升1.1 个百分点。费用端来看，销售费用率同比下降0.8ppt至14.3%，部分受益于16 号准则对租金费用重分类的影响，同时“美店”亦带来引流成本的节约；财务成本净额由2018 年的5.2亿元提升至16.62 亿元，其中因16 号准则增加的租赁负债利息开支8.75 亿元，剔除该因素后，公司财务支出仍处于较高水平。公司2019 底账面现金82 亿元，存货周转天数同比降低7 天至58 天。

　　3、公司业务转型效果仍需要观察。现阶段公司重点聚焦“家生活”

　　战略转型，持续推进美店、国美App 和国美门店的三端融合，2020年新业务占比有望进一步提升。对于社交电商“美店”，公司预计2020 年其有望实现100%的GMV 增长，线上社群拓展至150 万个，希望通过以实体店为中心拓展社群经营模式，提升用户粘性。我们认为公司的业务转型效果仍需要观察，疫情预计会对公司上半年经营业绩带来一定冲击。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　考虑疫情影响及竞争加剧，下调2020 每股盈利预测28%至-0.02元，暂维持2021 年盈利预测。当前股价对应2020e0.2xP/S。维持中性评级和目标价0.68 港币，对应2020e0.2xP/S，有6%下降空间。

　　风险

　　行业竞争持续加剧；疫情影响持续时间超出预期。

　　2019 performance fell short of our expectations

Gome Retail announced unaudited results for 2019: realized revenue of 59.483 billion yuan, -7.6% year on year; Guimu's net loss was 2.59 billion yuan, corresponding to a loss of 0.12 yuan per share. Compared with the net loss of 4.89 billion yuan in 2018, it was still lower than our expectations, mainly due to pressure on traditional home appliance 3C business performance and high financial costs. At this stage, the company is in a period of strategic transformation and adjustment, and the effects of subsequent transformation still need to be observed.

Development trends

1. The decline in revenue increased in the second half of the year, mainly due to poor performance in the traditional home appliance 3C business. Revenue in 2019 was -7.6% year-on-year, of which 1H/2H revenue was -1.1%/-15.2% year-on-year, respectively. The decline increased in the second half of the year. It is expected that in connection with increased competition in the industry, it could fall 4.45% compared to the same stores throughout the year. At the same time, the company also actively adjusted its store network and closed some loss-making stores, leading to a decline in revenue. Total GMV was +2.7% year-on-year to 136.1 billion yuan throughout the year, of which the US store GMV was +101% year on year, and the share of new business continued to increase. In terms of stores, the number of outlets increased by 480 to 2,602 at the end of 2019, the number of newly opened/closed stores was 1110/630 respectively, and the total number of stores in the county area expanded to 1,026, and the revenue share increased to 7.07%. The company plans to open 2,000 new county stores in 2020, further strengthening the low-tier market layout.

2. Gross margin has increased, and financial expenses are high. Thanks to the improved product sales structure, the consolidated gross profit margin for the full year of 2019 was 17.9% (Page2 is the gross profit margin of product sales of 15.3%), an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous year. On the cost side, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.8ppt to 14.3% year-on-year, partly benefiting from the impact of Standard No. 16 on the reclassification of rent expenses. At the same time, “American stores” also brought savings on drainage costs. Net financial costs increased from 520 million yuan in 2018 to 1,662 million yuan, of which 875 million yuan of interest expenses on leasing liabilities increased due to Standard 16. After excluding this factor, the company's financial expenses were still at a high level. The company had cash on its books at the end of 2019 of 8.2 billion yuan, and the number of inventory turnover days decreased by 7 to 58 days over the same period last year.

3. The effects of the company's business transformation still need to be observed. At this stage, the company focuses on “family life”

Strategic transformation continues to promote the three-terminal integration of US stores, Gome App, and Gome stores, and the share of new business is expected to increase further in 2020. For social e-commerce “beauty stores”, the company expects to achieve 100% GMV growth in 2020 and expand the online community to 1.5 million. It hopes to expand the community business model centered on physical stores to increase user stickiness. We believe that the effects of the company's business transformation still need to be observed. The epidemic is expected to have a certain impact on the company's operating performance in the first half of the year.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Considering the impact of the pandemic and increased competition, the 2020 earnings per share forecast was lowered by 28% to -0.02 yuan, and the 2021 earnings forecast was maintained for the time being. The current stock price corresponds to 2020E0.2XP/s. Maintaining a neutral rating and target price of HK$0.68, corresponding to 2020E0.2XP/S, there is room for 6% decline.

risks

Competition in the industry continues to intensify; the impact of the pandemic has continued beyond expectations.

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国美零售(00493.HK)：传统业务下滑拖累2019年业绩 转型效果仍需要观察

Gome Retail (00493.HK): The effects of the decline in traditional business dragging down performance transformation in 2019 still need to be observed

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国美零售(00493.HK)：传统业务下滑拖累2019年业绩转型效果仍需要观察