Summary of the report:
The company is the largest production and export base of antipyretic and analgesic drugs in Asia and an important manufacturer of cardio-cerebrovascular, anti-infective and central nervous systems in China, with the first domestic market share of many varieties. At present, the company has formed a layout with the three business sectors of preparation, API and pharmaceutical intermediates as the core, including heat-clearing and detoxification, digestion and metabolism, cardiovascular and other fields, with strategic varieties of Shutaide, Cushing, Jiening, Baochang, etc.; API mainly includes ibuprofen, analgin, caffeine, aspirin and levodopa; pharmaceutical intermediates mainly include trimethyl formate and other chemical products.
In terms of preparations, the company promotes the strategy of large preparations through the integration of internal assets. at present, the company mainly promotes the core strategic varieties headed by Baochang, Jiening and Cushing, gradually optimizing the product structure and enhancing the competitiveness of the company's preparation products. the company's marketing resources tilt to strategic varieties and concentrate advantages to create several hundred million varieties. At present, the company's core preparation varieties are in a rapid release, and the market potential is further released.
The variety pattern of characteristic API is relatively fixed, and the market share of the company's main varieties is high and relatively stable. The price growth of the company's main APIs accelerated after 2017, on the one hand, due to the stricter environmental inspection of raw materials and increased production costs, on the other hand, some API enterprises limited or stopped production due to environmental protection verification, the market supply tends to be tight. At present, due to the upsurge of global demand driven by the epidemic, the demand for major varieties has further increased, especially ibuprofen, and prices are expected to continue to increase performance elasticity.
The company antipyretic analgesic raw material drug magnitude, downstream demand is very huge, born with extended advantages, and the company has a long history of internationalization, characteristic preparation CMO layout continues to advance, 20 billion tablets of preparation CMO production capacity is expected to fully reach production by the end of 2022 (10 billion tablets belong to the new and old kinetic energy conversion), assuming that 0.03 yuan / piece net profit calculation, full production will bring 300 million new considerable net profit.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's net profit from 2020 to 2021 is expected to be 4.39,5.50 and 686 million yuan respectively, EPS is 0.71,0.88 and 1.10 yuan, PE is 15.7,12.6 and 10.1 times, covering for the first time and giving recommended rating.
Risk tips: capacity expansion is not up to expectations, preparation sales are not up to expectations, and other risks