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兄弟科技(002562):业绩拐点显现 成长启动元年

西南證券 ·  Mar 15, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Recommended logic: The vitamin boom reversed, and the VB1 subsidiary's resumption of production benefited from the booming market, driving the company's vitamin business to an inflection point. At the same time, perfumes and contrast agents began to contribute to growth in 2020, opening up room for growth. Net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.44, 2.39, and 311 million yuan, respectively, with a 3-year compound growth rate of 140%. The vitamin boom reversed, and the company's performance reached an inflection point. The vitamin boom cycle brought about by supply-side reforms in the second half of 2018 came to an end. Prices of VB1, VB3, and VB5 fell sharply from high levels. Prices of varieties other than VB5 continued to be low in 2019. Some varieties were in a state of loss in the industry, and vitamin profits contributed more than 90% of the company. Coupled with the temporary shutdown of the company's VB1 subsidiary due to the Xiangshui accident, dragged down the company's 2018 and 2019 results. We believe that in 2020, the company will usher in an inflection point in performance. First, the bottom of the company's VK3, VB1, VB3 and other product cycles were relatively well sorted out. In 2019, due to low prices, some companies even lost money. As losses worsened, market competition eased, and the competitive pattern gradually stabilized. Second, since 2020, the epidemic has been used as a catalyst to accelerate the rise in the VK3, VB1, and VB3 varieties. VB1, VB3, and VK3 increased by 72%, 23%, and 10% respectively compared to 2019. At the same time, the company's VB1 subsidiary has passed approval to resume production, which will benefit from this round of industry sentiment. The vitamin business has fully recovered, and the company's performance has reached an inflection point. A new harvest period has begun, and the company has returned to the growth channel. The second phase of the hydroquinol, derivatives, and iodine contrast agent project, which began construction in 2017, has been tested, and 2020 will begin to increase the company's performance. At the same time, with the release of production capacity, the company officially entered the field of perfumery and pharmaceuticals, and the share of the vitamin business, which fluctuates greatly in the future cycle, will decline. The first phase of the hydroquinol and derivatives project includes 10,000 tons of phenol and 15,000 tons of hydroquinone derivatives (including 3,000 tons of vanillin and 2,500 tons of ethyl vanillin). The product structure of phenol and vanillin can be adjusted according to the market, improving risk resistance. At the same time, vanillin, as a global fragrance variety, has good market prospects, bringing increased performance to the company. The contrast agent project has been tested and production capacity is planned to be 1,000 tons. It is expected to start supplying intermediates in the middle of the year. Later, it is expected to become a contrast agent raw material supplier, opening up the company's new business field. Iodine contrast agents are an important project for the company to officially start the pharmaceutical business. In the future, the company will continue to increase its layout in the pharmaceutical field, and there is plenty of room for growth. Profit forecasting and investment advice. The vitamin boom reversed, and the company's performance reached an inflection point. Production of perfumes and contrast agents began new growth. Net profit is expected to be 0.44, 2.39, and 311 million yuan respectively in 2019-2021, with a 3-year compound growth rate of 140%. We gave the company 28 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 7.56 yuan, covered for the first time, and gave it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Demand for downstream feed has declined; project progress or falls short of expectations; vitamin prices have dropped sharply.

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