Event: the company announced its 2019 performance KuaiBao on February 28th. Its revenue in 2019 was 1.871 billion yuan, an increase of 46.19% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 96 million yuan, an increase of 96.53% over the same period last year.
Comments:
1. Due to short-term factors, the performance was slightly lower than expected. According to the company's previous forecast, the company's net profit in 2019 was below the median level, an increase of 96.53% over the same period last year. The company achieved a revenue of 440 million yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 13.9% over the same period last year, and realized a return profit of-3 million yuan, turning a profit into a loss. As the subsidiary Bofat exceeded its performance commitment for the year, the company withheld 19.53 million yuan in excess performance awards, which had a greater impact on the fourth quarter performance. In addition, we judge that the delayed delivery confirmation of some downstream customer orders may also lead to a decline in profits in the fourth quarter. With the rapid growth of 5G mobile communication equipment products and the expansion of overseas markets, the annual revenue and performance of the beneficiary company have achieved substantial growth, but affected by short-term factors, it is slightly lower than market expectations. According to KuaiBao's performance in 2019, the company's total assets are expected to be 2.44 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 21.11% over the beginning of the period, and the owner's equity belonging to shareholders of listed companies is 1.517 billion yuan, an increase of 6.52% over the beginning of the period. the net assets per share belonging to shareholders of listed companies were 9.01 yuan, down 29% from the beginning of the period, mainly due to the substantial increase in the company's equity during the year's implementation of the profit distribution plan.
2. with the integrated production capacity of antenna and filter, the company is expected to seize the opportunity of intergenerational change.
The company is an integrated leading enterprise with the production capacity of 4G/5G base station antenna and filter while being scarce in China. 5G antennas and filters are developing in the direction of miniaturization and integration, and become the largest investment part of the wireless part. The company has obvious advantages as a scarce antenna + dielectric filter integrated production enterprise, and the company itself has a strong ability to develop and manufacture 4G/5G antennas. At the same time, the existing layout of ceramic dielectric filter products is further strengthened, which is expected to seize the opportunity of intergenerational integration of AFU antenna filters in RF products. At present, the company is the main supplier of ZTE metal filters and has entered Ericsson's supply catalogue. 5G antennas have been supplied to ZTE and occupy a large share. In addition, the stock market of the company's 4G antenna business in Japan is expected to remain stable.
3. New products + new market, the company can grow in the future.
The company depends on the layout of new products + new market, the future growth is determined. The company has a first-mover advantage in new RF products such as 5G antennas and 5G ceramic waveguide filters. The first phase of the company's ceramic waveguide filter expansion project has completed the equipment relocation and debugging, with a planned production capacity of about 1 million pieces per month. In addition, considering the subsequent growth of market demand, the company is actively preparing for the construction of the second phase 5G ceramic waveguide filter. The company's 5G small metal filter has entered Ericsson's supply chain, and plans to further strengthen cooperation with Ericsson in products such as ceramic waveguide filters and antennas, and is optimistic that the company will grow into a domestic base station RF antenna leader in the tuyere with 5G policy. At present, the company has entered the United States market, has supplied small quantities for mainstream operators in the United States, and is expected to open up a new incremental market space, realize the rapid development of the main business of communications, and grow into a new leader of RF.
4. the domestic scarce antenna + filter integration leader, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating, the domestic accelerated construction of 5G has been increased by policy. The company has obvious advantages as an integrated manufacturer of antenna and dielectric filter, which is scarce in the market. It is expected to seize the opportunity of intergenerational replacement of RF products while stabilizing the stock market of 4G antennas and filters. Make use of the first-mover advantage of 5G antenna and 5G ceramic dielectric filter to open the incremental space and realize the rapid development of the company's business performance. On the basis of the core suppliers of ZTE, the company has entered the Ericsson supply chain and successfully opened the American market, which is expected to break through new customers and open new market growth space and grow into a new leader of RF.
It is estimated that the net profit in 2019-2021 is about 96 million yuan, 213 million yuan and 292 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 74.6X, 33.5X and 24.4X PE in 2019-2021, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating.
Risk tips: 5G construction progress is not as expected, new customer expansion is not as expected, and gross profit margin of new products is falling too fast.
