Global experience of electric vehicles: the first wave of electric vehicles in ① 2014-2016 was driven by China's highly subsidized electric buses and minicars; the second wave of high-end electric vehicles in ② 2016-2019 was driven by Tesla, Inc. 's epic innovation The third round of ③ electrification wave is the European electrification started in 2020, driven by the European traditional car giants, three years of electric transformation into the harvest period, including Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, PSA and other group electric platform models on the market and volume.
New energy vehicle industry chain, after two rounds of electrification wave, the leading pattern is basically formed, continue to focus on recommending Tesla, Inc. industrial chain leader. The 2020 European electric wave will drive the new growth leader and create the next major investment opportunity with high performance growth, large growth space and strong valuation flexibility.
Delun Electronics is the global leader in electronic connectors and wire harnesses. In 2012, the company formed a joint venture with Kromberg& Schubert Group, one of the largest professional automotive electronic connector manufacturers in Germany, and acquired European automotive electronics leader Meta System in 2014, profoundly benefiting from the electric intelligent networking industry trend of automobiles. Among them, the volume of the high-end supply chain of automotive electronics business, the electric vehicle charging module 2020 is expected to start a profit cycle, vehicle networking has broad potential in the future, and the wire harness business is locked in FAW-Volkswagen MEB platform:
① vehicle charger (OBC): according to the different integration of high voltage system, the value of single car is 3000-6000 yuan, and the global market space is nearly 80 billion in 2025; the company's Chongqing Bishan factory has a full production capacity of 300000 OBC, and the business is expected to grow high due to the release of electric vehicles in Europe.
② vehicle networking products (OBD): the global exclusive car insurance sharing (UBI) model, the scale is in the leading position in the world, and is expected to dig into China's trillion car insurance market in the future.
③ car harness products: the company is the core supplier of FAW-Volkswagen wire harness, locking 2.6 million orders for the whole life cycle of FAW-Volkswagen MEB platform, and will produce in 2020.
Investment advice:
We predict that after three years of capital, R & D and production capacity investment, the company has entered a comprehensive inflection point.
After the impairment of goodwill and receivables in 2019, the financial position will turn upwards in 2020. And the company's electric vehicles and automotive electronics revenue share is expected to expand in an all-round way, and is expected to become the core investment target in the field of electric intelligent network connection.
From 2019 to 2021, we expect the company's operating income to be 70.7,88.1 and 10.44 billion yuan respectively, the return net profit to be-5.3,3.0 and 450 million yuan respectively (deducting non-net profit for 20-21 years), and the EPS to be-1.10,0.63,0.94 yuan per share respectively. Give comparable companies a "buy" rating of 42 times the average PE in 2020 and 26 yuan corresponding to the target price for the first time.
Risk hint: the progress of electrification in Europe is lower than expected; Volkswagen MEB platform sales are lower than expected; home appliances and consumer electronics industry boom is lower than expected.
