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当代明诚(600136):受益再融资新规 财务压力有望缓解

西南證券 ·  Feb 17, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incident: Recently, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued the “Administrative Measures on Securities Issuance by Listed Companies”, “Interim Measures on the Administration of Securities Issuance by GEM Listed Companies”, and “Implementation Rules on the Non-public Issuance of Shares by Listed Companies”, which relaxed the regulatory requirements for refinancing matters for listed companies. The company is the target that has benefited the most from the new refinancing regulations. In 2018, the company spent 500 million US dollars to acquire Xinying Sports. The transaction was paid in full cash, forming a loan of a certain scale, causing the company's profits to be swallowed up by financial expenses. In December 2019, the company completed the non-public offering of shares to Contemporary Group, Li Jianguang, Yu Lingxiao, and Li Hongxin. The issue price was 8.48 yuan/share, raising a total of 830 million yuan; on February 6, 2020, the company announced that it had received a letter of no objection from the Shanghai Stock Exchange to the company's non-public issuance of corporate bonds. The total amount issued did not exceed 600 million yuan, so the company's financial pressure was alleviated to a certain extent. We believe that with the introduction of new refinancing regulations, the company's financing channels will gradually be unblocked, and it is expected that the pressure on financial expenses will be greatly alleviated, and the factors that suppress stock prices may be gradually eliminated. The company is the target that has benefited the most from the European Cup. The company owns the new media rights for the 2020 European Cup and is one of the purest sports targets of A-shares. In addition to this, the company also has exclusive global commercial rights for 2021-2028 AFC related tournaments and full media copyright for the 2019/2020-2024/2025 La Liga season, creating a very complete copyright matrix. Among them, the AFC's related rights span over a period of nearly 10 years, including copyright, sponsorship rights, and derivatives rights, and is an exclusive global interest. It is expected not only to become a pillar of the company's future performance, but also a milestone in the global expansion of the copyright business. The company is a leading sports copyright operator and marketing service provider in China. It has strong industrial resources and rich copyright reserves. It is expected to take advantage of the development opportunities of Asian soccer and Chinese soccer to enter the fast track of development. The epidemic will not change the basic logic of the 2020 New Year of Sports. Affected by the epidemic, domestic sporting events have been postponed, and the sports sector has suffered a certain short-term impact. The core events of 2020 are concentrated in summer (the 2020 European Cup starts from mid-June to mid-July; the 2020 Tokyo Olympics start from late July to early August), and the duration of the pandemic is limited, and the impact on the whole year is limited. We believe that in 2020, the sports sector will continue to catalyze major events such as the European Cup and the Olympics, making it a very worthwhile segmentation circuit. Profit forecasts and investment advice. We expect the company's EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.22 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 0.90 yuan, respectively. The company is one of the purest sports targets for A-shares. Benefiting from the unbundling of the refinancing policy, the pressure on financial expenses will be greatly alleviated, maintain a “buy” rating, and be given a valuation of 25 times in 2020, with a corresponding target price of 17.5 yuan/share. Risk warning: risk of major changes in sports policy, risk of business integration or failure to meet expectations, risk of competition copyright acquisition or failure to meet expectations, risk of merger and acquisition project operation or failure to meet expectations.

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