Guide to this report: taking into account the valuation of the industry and comparable companies, as well as the underpricing behavior caused by the removal of risks during the inquiry process, we expect the issuing price range of amethyst storage to be between 21.07 yuan and 22.52 yuan.
Summary:
At present, the market has entered the stage of information effectiveness and inter-agency low-price game, taking into account the valuation of industry and comparable companies, as well as the underpricing behavior caused by high price elimination risk in the process of inquiry. We estimate that the inquiry range of the amethyst storage for the inquiry on February 12 is between 21.07 yuan and 22.52 yuan.
Amethyst storage is the only optical storage company in mainland China whose BD-R underlying coding strategy has been certified by the International Blu-ray Alliance (only 9 in the world). In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 402 million (YOY+ 28.34%) and home net profit of 105 million yuan (YOY+95.63%), mainly providing optical storage solutions, accounting for 96.49% of revenue in the enterprise market. The company covers optical storage media, equipment and solutions, builds products and services of the whole industry chain, and the company has 100G medium quality production capacity, and only Panasonic and Sony Group Corp have the same level of technology in the same industry. the company is the only company in the industry with rotating cage hardware structure technology. The downstream customer types of the company include stable customer resources such as third-party data center operators and telecom operators. It is expected that China's data circle will grow at an average annual compound growth rate of 30.35% to 2025, and its global share will increase from 23.4% to 27.8%. Big data era provides a driving force for the sustainable development of the industry, independent and controllable storage technology plays an important role in the field of national information security, and the company is expected to benefit from industry development and policy-driven.
Based on the above analysis and the disclosure of the company's prospectus, the companies that are similar to Amethyst Storage in products or business are eHualu, Tongyou Technology, NetCom and Yi'an Xin. Combined with the size of the company, 300212.SZ and Tongyou Technology (300302.SZ) are finally selected as comparable companies. The price-to-earnings ratio of comparable companies in 2018 is 61.30-73.89 times, with an average of 67.60 times; in 2019, the price-to-earnings ratio is 52.18-187.65 times, with an average of 119.91 times.
Referring to the static price-to-earnings ratio of C39 computer, Communications and other Electronic equipment Manufacturing Industry in the company's industry for nearly a month (as of February 10, 2020), we take the valuation of comparable companies and industries as the basis, and taking into account the underpricing behavior caused by high price removal risk in the process of inquiry, the valuation of amethyst storage is given a certain discount, corresponding to a 19-year return net profit PE range of 29-31 times. Based on the estimated total share capital of no more than 190.38 million shares, the market value after the issue is expected to be 40.74-4.112 billion yuan, and the corresponding offering price range is 21.07-22.52 yuan.
Risk tips: (1) beware of 10% high price rigid elimination risk and the second game behavior on the day of market quotation. (2) the development of optical storage market is not as expected.