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双塔食品(002481)首次覆盖报告:豌豆蛋白衍生强附加值 人造肉蓝海中的革命和引领

天風證券 ·  Feb 10, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Replacing protein is the general trend. Clarifying the direction of development of the artificial meat industry, the urbanization process has led to a contraction in farming and animal husbandry. Economic development has accelerated and the total demand for protein intake has increased. Combined with the spread of the animal epidemic and pressure from environmental protection organizations, the market size of meat substitutes will usher in rapid development. “Artificial meat” is a big concept. It is a general term for four types of alternative proteins. Plant-based meat has now been widely used in developed countries due to its low overall cost, strong safety, easy digestion, and few side effects on animal welfare and the environment. In the future, it may be the fastest developing segment of the artificial meat concept. Pea protein is the most important raw material for plant-based artificial meat. The diversity of future artificial meat products places higher demands on the technical level of protein extraction from peas. Shuangta Foods has always been deeply involved in the field of pea protein, and has accumulated rich experience in the preparation of pea raw materials and the research and development of pea protein extraction. Shuangta Foods has accumulated complete pea protein production technology due to its fan business, attracting global attention. Pea protein is an accessory in the fan processing process. As the largest fan manufacturer in China, Shuangta Foods has always strictly controlled product quality, and the traditional fan business is developing steadily. With the recovery in revenue and the expansion of new channels, market share is expected to increase. The company was the first in the industry to establish the Longkou Fan Research Institute and has the only “nationally accredited laboratory” in the fan industry. The company uses advanced technology to work on peas as a breakthrough to produce various products such as pea protein and dietary fiber. In 2018, pea's edible protein revenue was 5.1 billion yuan, up 70.62% year on year. The revenue scale surpassed fans for the first time, accounting for 21.32% of revenue, becoming the company's main source of profit and an important strategic reserve for the company. Exchanges between Beyond Meat, an international artificial meat leader, and Shuangta Food confirmed the company's position in the international pea protein industry, and recognized the quality of the company's pea protein and the world's leading technology. Research investment has achieved the “1+10” circular economy model, and channel collaboration has helped downstream expansion companies invest heavily in technology research and development, pioneered and implemented the “1+10” production model in the industry, driving enterprises to achieve a transformation from a single fan production and processing to the entire industrialization chain. In May 2019, Shuangta Foods officially began construction of the 100,000 ton pea deep processing project. The protein purity will reach 88% or more, and functional protein types will be segmented into different fields to provide protein products with different performance and characteristics to meet the market needs of different customers and achieve historic breakthroughs. In 2019, the company launched pea protein meat mooncakes through in-depth research and development, testing the waters of the artificial meat field for the first time. With continued investment in research and development, we expect Shuangta to make greater breakthroughs in the field of artificial meat. While extending the industrial chain, through channel collaboration, we can explore various types of artificial meat, providing strong and sustainable profit growth points for the company's future development. Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 24.02/28.46/3.825 billion yuan in 2019-2021, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%/18.48%/34.4%, net profit of 2.16/3.92/684 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.55%/81.19%/74.45%, and EPS of 0.17/0.32/0.55 yuan respectively. The first coverage gave the company a valuation of 35 times in 2020, a target price of 11.2 yuan, and a “buy” rating for the company. Risk warning: food safety risk; risk of raw material price fluctuations; protein sales fall short of expectations

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