Carbosulfan and methomyl are expected to invigorate the traditional carbamate business: the company is the largest carbamate pesticide enterprise in China, and the products such as carbofuran and methomyl are older, but the company's key intermediates are self-supporting. The supply of small and medium-sized competitors shrank significantly, and the company's main products have a high market share. In addition, the company has developed low-toxic products such as carbosulfan, carbofuran and methomyl, which are deeply bound to multinational enterprises.
There is still room for improvement in short-term performance. At present, the market concerns are focused on two points: first, the safety production permit of the Guixi base expires at the end of the year, but there is the possibility of a moderate extension. Secondly, with the resumption of production in northern Jiangsu, the prices of related pesticides are at risk of falling. The pattern of products such as carbofuran and methomyl is better, which is basically dominated by Haley. Finally, the company's salicylonitrile business has made a limited contribution because of the waste gas treatment and transformation for 19 years, and the methyl pyrimidine phosphorus business has made a breakthrough in the field of storage pest control, which is a profit growth point for 20 years.
The time, the earth and the people are favorable, and the long-term growth is relatively certain. From a management point of view, the management team of Haili Group / Hunan Haili has completed the adjustment in 19 years, and the new management team is market-oriented and chooses the high-growth track. From the perspective of project reserve and land reserve, the company has rich product reserves, as well as large land reserves in Guixi and Ningxia. From the perspective of industrial environment, Jiangsu relatively excludes pesticide intermediates and crude drug business, multinational corporations pay more attention to soft power in the procurement process, as a well-known national brand enterprises, the first-mover advantage is obvious.
The company's balance sheet has been repaired, and the interests of employees are basically consistent with the secondary market. The company's Guixi base has set aside 90 million for impairment, and the balance sheet has been basically repaired. At the same time, in January 18, the company adopted the employee stock ownership plan for 7.53 yuan per share, subscribed for 38.2 million yuan, and participated in the private placement project. while the employee stock ownership plan realized employee motivation, it will also be an important support for the company's stock price in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect revenue of 2.061 billion yuan, 2.494 billion yuan and 2.783 billion yuan respectively, net profit of 149 million yuan, 241 million yuan and 289 million yuan respectively, EPS of 0.42,0.68 yuan and 0.81 yuan respectively, and current share price corresponding to 17X, 10x and 9X respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: low oil prices and intensified trade frictions lead to weak global demand for crude drugs
