Main points of investment:
1. Cover for the first time, the target price is 9.32 yuan, increase the rating. The company has remarkable advantages in children's books, the provincial market share of teaching materials and auxiliary business continues to increase, and the layout of diversified business is smooth. It is estimated that EPS0.79/0.85/0.96 in 2019-2021 will be valued at 11.8 times the average PE valuation of the company in 2019, corresponding to the target price of 9.32 yuan, and the overweight rating will be given for the first time.
two。 The dominant position of children's books is remarkable, and the province with a large population brings the steady growth of teaching materials and teaching aids. In the publishing business, the people's Society and tomorrow Society of the publishing house affiliated to the company have entered the ranks of the top 100 publishers in the country, publishing more than 10,000 publications a year, and 536 books have sold more than 10,000 in 2018, of which tomorrow Society has been ploughing the field of children's books for many years. Create a long-term "smile Cat Diary" and other high-quality content in the top 10 of the best-seller list. In the teaching materials and auxiliary business, due to the influence of the unified compilation of three subjects, part of the company's Shandong version of teaching materials gradually withdrew from the market, but at the same time, because it has the only qualification for issuing textbooks at the stage of compulsory education in Shandong Province, and because it is the only distributor of teaching aids for evaluation and recommendation, the company has obtained the agency operation right of unified teaching materials in the province, and further increased the market share in the province to hedge against the withdrawal of its own copyright teaching materials, taking into account the superimposed second child population base of Shandong Province. The number of students is expected to continue to grow, and the company's teaching materials publishing and distribution business is expected to achieve long-term and steady growth.
3. The layout of diversified business is smooth. The company's diversified industrial plate has formed a cluster smoothly: the publishing unit IP expansion, the integration of media management is beginning to see benefits, "Xiaohe listening Book" audiobook publishing platform and a number of knowledge service products to meet the needs of the market on-line operation, Shandong Science and Technology Publishing House Baokos ICC project, tomorrow Press tomorrow Children gallery art training and other projects continue to promote With the rapid development of educational equipment, research, training and sales of non-map products, Bookstore Group has gradually become a new growth point of Bookstore Group.
4. Catalyst: the publishing business maintained steady growth, the new business expanded smoothly, and the dividend rate continued to rise by 5. 5%. Risk hint: the risk of book content audit, the risk of reducing the burden of teaching materials and other policies.
