This report is read as follows:
The company takes modern agriculture and health food as the core business, constantly promoting the extension of the industrial chain and structural optimization. The performance of participating in high-quality financial assets has been thickened, the development of a new type of urbanization has progressed steadily, and opportunities and challenges coexist.
Main points of investment:
Investment advice: the main business of trade is sound, health care and finance help development, and the real estate business fluctuates slightly in the short term. It is estimated that 2019-2021 EPS 0.13,0.16,0.19 yuan, reference trade comparable company PB also considers that the company's investment real estate accounts for a relatively high proportion, combined with the real estate enterprise PB valuation, give the company 0.7 times PB, the first coverage, the target price 3.88 yuan, carefully increase holdings.
Take modern agriculture and health food as the core business to promote the extension of the industrial chain and structural optimization. The purchase and sale of 19H1 grain and oil accounts for 89% of the company's income and is the core main business of the company. The company has established an industrial system integrating planting base, deep processing park, trade, warehousing and logistics.
In recent years, the company has accelerated its extension to the upstream and downstream of agriculture, establishing a joint venture with Beidahuang Group and Dalian Zhongmai to establish Beidahuang supply chain Management Company, acquire China Corn Network in 2019, and build a supply chain service platform of "Industry + Internet + Finance". Provide industry research and analysis, industry information integration and matchmaking and other comprehensive services. The company also launched brand rice, brand bean products, brand edible oil and other high gross margin, high value-added products, constantly optimize the industrial structure and enhance profitability.
Financial business operation and investment two-wheel drive, continue to thicken the company's performance. The company carries out inclusive finance, supply chain finance and other businesses to serve agriculture and daily consumption. The business size of 19H1 subsidiary Jinlian Financial Services is 239 million yuan with revenue of 9.08 million yuan; the net profit of Dongfang Finance (30% shareholding) is 18.37 million yuan; and the investment income of China Minsheng Banking Corp (2.92%) is 911 million yuan. Financial business is expected to continue to thicken the performance of the company.
The new urbanization development industry is advancing steadily, with both opportunities and challenges. The subsidiary of Guokai Oriental is mainly engaged in real estate development, industrial introduction and operation, and the main projects are in high-quality areas such as Qinglong Lake in Beijing and Hangzhou. Under the guidance of the policy of "no speculation in housing", the growth rate of the real estate industry has slowed down, and the financial cost of real estate development is relatively high, so it is necessary to adjust the business strategy and reduce the business risk in time.
Risk tips: fluctuations in agricultural prices, changes in real estate regulatory policies, growth in financial costs, and so on.