Main points of investment: while tamping the trading channel business, the brokerage industry will vigorously develop wealth management and institutional brokerage. Affected by the recovery of the market, the net return on investment has increased significantly. The reasonable value range is 7.24-7.96 yuan per share, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.
[event] the company achieved revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2019, + 77% year-on-year; net profit of 600 million yuan, + 128% year-on-year; corresponding to 0.15 yuan of EPS. In the second quarter, the operating income reached 400 million yuan, + 14% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 100 million yuan,-7% compared with the same period last year. The year-on-year increase in net profit was mainly due to a substantial increase in investment income (including fair value). Brokerage / underwriting / asset management / interest / proprietorship accounted for 27% / 2% / 3% respectively in the first half of 2019.
The company achieved 400 million yuan in brokerage income in the first half of 2019, + 23% compared with the same period last year. The company's brokerage business continues to deepen the transformation of its operation mode, promote the centralization of back-office business and the lightweight transformation of its outlets, set up a new wealth management committee, adjust and set up a private financial management department on the basis of customer service centers, speed up the construction of wealth management system, and at the same time constantly improve the training mode, business development mode and assessment mechanism of investment talents, and deepen the connotation of wealth management services.
Investment banking revenue is basically flat, with more IPO reserves. The company achieved 25 million yuan in investment banking in the first half of the year,-2% compared with the same period last year.
The main underwriting scale of equity is 1.6 billion yuan, ranking 35th. The main underwriting scale of bonds is 1.1 billion yuan, which is-57% compared with the same period last year, ranking 90th, of which the underwriting scale of local government bonds reaches 1.1 billion yuan. There are 16 IPO reserve projects, ranking 34th, including 1 small and medium-sized board, 2 Science and Technology Innovation Board and 2 gem. In the first half of the year, the company's investment bank, on the one hand, strengthened the industry research and analysis work, introduced outstanding research talents, and enriched the team's investment and research strength; on the other hand, it actively adjusted its business strategy and increased the development of bond business.
Strengthen active product development, and the proportion of active management scale has increased significantly. The income of the asset management business in the first half of the year was 45 million yuan,-7% compared with the same period last year. The company continues to step up efforts to actively manage product development. By the end of June 19, the entrusted capital management scale was 86 billion yuan, 15% higher than at the beginning of the year, of which the active management scale was about 23 billion yuan, which was + 42% at the beginning of the year. The active management scale accounted for 27% of the entrusted management scale, and increased 11ppt compared with the beginning of the year.
Affected by the recovery of the market, the income of proprietary investment has increased significantly. The net investment income (including fair value) in the first half of 1919 was 600 million yuan, which was + 220% compared with the same period last year. Fixed income business achieves an investment rate of return of 9.35% through appropriate allocation and trading strategies; equity investment business actively adapts to the new situation and requirements in terms of risk preference, position management and stock selection, and achieves an investment rate of return of 12.01%.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the revenue of the company 2019Universe 20Universe 21E is 21.645 million yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year, the net profit is 669 million yuan and 658 million yuan respectively, and the year-on-year EPS is 0.18 yuan and 0.18 yuan respectively. The comparable company valuation method is used to value the company and give it 2.0-2.2 x PB in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 7.24-7.96 yuan per share, corresponding to 40.2-44.2 x 2019EPE, maintaining a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint: the continued downturn in the market leads to a decline in the scale of business, and market supervision is further strengthened.
