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苏利股份(603585)半年报点评:上半年维持稳增长 宁夏项目顺利开展

國聯證券 ·  Aug 28, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its 2019 interim report. In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 954 million yuan, an increase of 17.54% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 171 million yuan, an increase of 12.09% over the previous year. Among them, the second quarter achieved revenue of 511 million yuan, an increase of 18.6% year on year, and realized net profit of 901 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.03%. Key investment points: Pesticides and flame retardants maintained a high level of prosperity in the first half of the year. The company's pesticide and flame retardant business maintained a high level of prosperity in the first half of the year, and overall achieved a sharp rise in volume and price: in the first half of the year, it sold 11,621.4 tons of various pesticides and intermediates, up 8.06% year on year, with an average price of 52,000 yuan/ton, up 5.69% year on year; in the first half of the year, it sold 4978.7 tons of various flame retardants, up 9.66% year on year, with an average price of 42,500 yuan/ton. The company is rich in reserve projects. As an important medium- to long-term profit growth point, the company still has many new projects to be completed and put into operation in the future, including: in terms of pesticides, the technical improvement project for the company's annual output of 9,000 tons of pesticide formulation products is expected to be completed on December 31, 2019, and the project with an annual output of 1,000 tons of benzimidamide is expected to be completed by December 31, 2020; in terms of flame retardants, the construction of Taizhou Baili with an annual output of 15,000 tons of decabromodiphenyl ethane and related engineering has basically been completed. It has now entered the full installation stage of equipment and facilities. The project with an annual output of 5,000 tons of brominated polystyrene is expected to be completed in 2020 Completed before December 31. The commissioning of these projects will be an important profit growth point for the company in the future. Preliminary preparations for the Ningxia project have been fully carried out as the company's key future strategic planning project, and preliminary preparations for Suli Ningxia's infrastructure investment have been fully carried out. In the later stages, the company will steadily advance the construction of the project on the basis of vigorously introducing various professional and technical personnel in accordance with the infrastructure investment work schedule and work content at each stage, and contribute to optimizing the company's business and product structure and adding new profit growth points as soon as possible. Profit forecast and rating Due to frequent global trade conflicts and extreme climate disasters since this year, demand for crop protection products has been reduced. Therefore, the company's profit forecast value was lowered. The company's profit forecast value was lowered. The company's EPS for 2019 to 2021 is 1.85 yuan, 2.18 yuan, and 2.41 yuan respectively, corresponding to the latest closing price PE, which is 12 times, 10 times, and 9 times, respectively, but considering the growth space brought about by the company's future Ningxia project and the current low valuation level, the “recommended” rating was maintained. Risk warning. New project progress falls short of expectations; global agricultural product prices are low; exchange rates fluctuate greatly

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