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铁龙物流(600125)公司动态点评:特箱业务维持高增 投建基地布局冷链

長城證券 ·  Aug 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Events: The first half of 2019 achieved revenue of 7.771 billion yuan, up 1.29% year on year; net profit of 266 million yuan, down 4.30% year on year; net profit after deduction of 253 million yuan, down 2.59% year on year. The special box business has maintained high growth, and the strategic control of outsourced processing trade has been controlled. The special box business completed delivery volume of 738,900 TEU in the first half of the year, an increase of 34.6% over the previous year; achieved revenue of 809 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.62%, and gross profit of 163 million yuan, an increase of 22.81% over the previous year. The company's investment in special boxes continued to grow at a high level. The company's investment in special boxes continued to grow at a high level. During the reporting period, new special boxes were built at 183 million yuan and consolidated at 144 million yuan. Growth is already showing. The freight business delivered a total volume of 26.2527 million tons, up 2.46% year on year; achieved revenue of 1.159 billion yuan, an increase of 8.02% year on year, and gross profit of 210 million yuan, a decrease of 4.49% year on year, mainly due to factors such as declining freight rates and fees. The contract processing trade business sold 1,6941 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.84% over the previous year, achieving revenue of 5.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%, and gross profit of 110 million yuan, an increase of 30.37% over the previous year. The strategic control of the supply chain business was the main reason for the decline in revenue growth. In addition, the passenger transport business achieved revenue of 22 million yuan, an increase of 0.06% over the same period last year. The real estate business achieved revenue of 233 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%. The company's special container business has bucked the trend in traffic volume against the backdrop of declining macro growth rates. The positive impact of the transformation of the transportation structure from highways to railways and multimodal transport on demand for various types of containers is greater than the impact of the economic downturn on traffic volume, and performance can maintain steady growth. Invest in the construction of customized processing warehouses and lay out cold chain logistics in advance. The company plans to invest 157 million yuan to build a customized meat processing warehouse in the Dalian cold chain logistics base under construction by the company, with a post-delivery processing capacity of 45,000 tons/year. Construction of the project is scheduled to commence by the end of 2019, with a construction period of 12 months. Of the current project balance of 420 million yuan under construction, 360 million yuan is a cold chain base, of which nearly 90 million yuan has been newly invested in this phase. The investment aims to achieve large-scale synergy between warehousing and processing, improve the company's comprehensive profitability, gradually complete the functional layout of the Dalian cold chain logistics base, further improve the relevant links in the company's cold chain industry chain, provide customers with intensive services to the greatest extent possible, and effectively reduce costs. Profit forecast: Profit is expected to be 524 million yuan, 612 million yuan and 732 million yuan in 2019-2021. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15.0, 12.8 and 10.7 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomic downturn is reducing traffic, and the implementation of the transit and rail policy falls short of expectations.

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