The overall growth trend of pharmaceutical business is good, and Huasu toothpaste is expected to increase rapidly through Gome's e-commerce platform.
The company's pharmaceutical business is based on Huasu Pharmaceuticals and currently has two R & D centers, three production bases and three sales teams. After its establishment, Huasu Pharmaceutical has undertaken the research and development achievements of the Academy of military Sciences over the years. The two R & D centers are the Beijing Huasu Pharmaceutical Research and Development Center based on the cooperation model of the Academy of military Sciences and Suya Pharmaceutical Technology, a drug metabolism platform established in 2015 in cooperation with the Academy of military Sciences; the three production bases are Beijing Huasu Pharmaceutical, Shandong Huasu Pharmaceutical (expected to increase its performance in 2017), and Duoduo Pharmaceutical. The sales force is mainly Huasu Pharmaceutical's prescription drug team, OTC and large health product team, and Duoduo Pharmaceutical sales team.
The overall growth of the company's pharmaceutical business is better: (1) the sales scale of Huasu's prescription drug Bosu (bisoprolol fumarate) in 2015 is about 220 million yuan, and the market focuses on third-class hospitals. The marketing strategy is to sink channels and open up investment channels. At the same time, integrated with Duoduo pharmaceutical channels, it is expected to achieve extraordinary growth in the next three years. (2) Yuanzhi (Benidipine Hydrochloride) of Huasu in Shandong Province has the most advantage in the treatment mechanism of antihypertensive drugs such as dipine. It is the only CCB with membrane osmosis and three-channel blocking mechanism, which comprehensively protects the heart, brain and kidney of the human body while reducing blood pressure. It is especially suitable for long-term use and has been recognized by authoritative experts in the industry. Huasu Pharmaceutical prescription drug team has maintained rapid growth in recent years, with an growth rate of nearly 60% last year. The scale of income in 2015 is more than 60 million. Based on the annual growth rate of 50%, the income is expected to double in the next two years. (3) Huasu OTC brand variety Huasu tablets and anti-motion sickness drug Feisele (phencyclonyl hydrochloride) are expected to maintain a sales scale of 150 million yuan and more than 50 million yuan respectively. (4) Tramadol, a variety of tramadol under Duoduo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., the lactobacillus tablets with a market share of 40% and annual sales of about 1 billion tablets on the supply side are expected to increase in price, and Duoduo Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve an average annual growth of 20-30%. It is expected to exceed the 37.1 million yuan and 47.1 million yuan promised in 2016-17.
Huasu Yuchuang toothpaste has been proved to have mucosal repair effect by clinical trials in the famous Beijing Stomatological Hospital. Previously, it was mainly sold to hospitals, drugstores and dental clinics. This year, we began to promote Shang Chao channels on a large scale, and we have signed a sales contract of 100 million yuan this year. As the company belongs to a small company and a large platform, backed by Gome Group, the product is expected to be promoted on the Gome e-commerce platform with the help of major shareholders, and may lead to the magnifying effect of retail experience replication and sales channel integration.
Relying on the collaborative research and development of the Academy of military Sciences, the drug metabolism platform coincides with the east wind of consistency evaluation.
Huasu Pharmaceutical has always been a quality demonstration enterprise in Beijing and a national strategic reserve drug production base. Relying on the strong R & D strength of the Academy of military Medical Sciences, it has a rich variety of R & D reserves, with nearly 20 R & D projects. Recently, four varieties, such as metoprolol succinate and hydroxymorphine hydrochloride, have obtained clinical approval, and the market has a great prospect. Suya Pharmaceutical Technology Company, which was newly established in 2015, specializes in drug metabolism research, is the sub-platform of the National Metabolism platform of the Academy of military Medical Sciences, and is the best choice for generic drug consistency evaluation test institutions. coinciding with the surge in demand caused by the implementation of consistency evaluation in the industry, it is expected to seize the market opportunity brought by consistent rating within 3 years, and is expected to form a new growth point for the company.
The little giant of venture capital is expected to share the policy dividend.
The holding subsidiary of the company, Beijing Zhongguancun Youth Science and Technology Venture Capital Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as: green Venture Capital Co., Ltd.) is mainly engaged in project investment, investment management and consulting. Its shareholder Beijing Xingguo Torch Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. is an enterprise under the Ministry of Science and Technology, and Green Venture Capital has successfully invested in Jingda shares (stock code: 600577). The state encourages "mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation" and introduces supporting policies such as new three-board layering one after another. at the National Conference on Scientific and technological Innovation held on May 30 and the Ninth National Congress of the China Science and Technology Association, Xi Jinping pointed out that the goal of the development of China's science and technology is to make our country an innovative country by 2020 and the forefront of an innovative country by 2030. By the 100th year of the founding of New China, China has become a world power in science and technology. The company is expected to benefit from its future development.
Financial expenses are a drag on performance, and additional issuance has become a top priority for the company.
In the past, due to the drag of real estate and construction projects, and the extension development mainly depends on self-raised investment, the company's current asset-liability ratio is as high as 71.2%, short-term loans of 430 million, 2014, financial expenses of 71.77 million and 66.4 million in 2015. The financial expense rate continues to rise, from 6.16% of 2015Q4 to 8.36% of 2016Q1; high debt is a drag on performance, and additional issuance is expected to ease the company's financial debt. The company plans to increase by 710 million in 2015, with a reserve price of 8.57 yuan per share. Gome Holdings, the controlling shareholder, has subscribed for 400 million locks for three years. The plan was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission at the end of February 2016 and expired at the end of August, so it is urgent to ensure the smooth implementation of additional issuance.
Profit forecast
Excluding the income from the divestiture of the remaining 1.5 billion of the company's assets for the time being, it is estimated that the corresponding EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.07,0.11,0.15 yuan, and the corresponding share price PE will be 111x, 73x and 51x respectively. Taking into account the company's strong determination to transform the pharmaceutical health industry, maintain the "highly recommended" rating, the target price is 11 yuan.
Risk hint
The promotion of Huasu Yuchuang toothpaste is not as expected, and the integration of Duoduo Pharmaceutical Industry is not as expected.