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爱建集团(600643):信托主业保持稳定增长 多元金融布局持续拓展

中金公司 ·  May 3, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The 1Q19 results were in line with expectations, and Aijian Group announced 1Q19 results: total operating income was +86% year over year to 860 million yuan, net profit was +49% year over year to 260 million yuan, and ROAE was +0.57ppt to 2.71% year over year during the reporting period, in line with market expectations, mainly due to steady growth in trust business. Development trend The main trust business is growing steadily. The company's 1Q19 net income from fees and commissions was +20% to $350 million; interest income was +281% to $120 million, mainly due to an increase in the company's consolidated financing trust plans; investment income of $0.6 billion (VS.1q18 loss of $0.3 billion), mainly due to increased trust plan income and loss of investment products disposed of by Aijian Trust in 1Q18. Trust business is the company's main business (FY18 revenue/profit contribution is 64%/96%, respectively). The scale of active management has steadily increased, and the trust return rate continues to grow, driving the company's performance growth. Focusing on the main financial business, the layout is becoming more comprehensive. The company's 1Q19 revenue was +192% year-on-year to 380 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in import and export trade business revenue and consolidated Huarui leasing revenue in the current period. In terms of diversified financial layout, 1) Leasing: The company completed the acquisition of Huarui Leasing in 4Q18 and expanded the leasing market (4Q18 profit contributed 400 million yuan), which is expected to further contribute to increased performance in 2019; 2) Securities: The company's 1Q19 investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures was +7.6x to 0.2 billion yuan year-on-year (VS.FY18 lost 500 million yuan, mainly due to loss of Aijian Securities). It is expected that under market recovery in 2019, Aijian Securities is expected to bring flexibility in performance; 3) Equity investment: The company has successively subscribed to Su Minjun and the Yangtze River Delta region Collaborate with advantageous industries and venture capital funds to further expand the layout of private equity investment and other fields. Benefit from marginal deregulation of industry regulations. With the implementation of new asset management regulations, the trust industry has gradually ushered in marginal regulatory easing and reduced liquidity pressure, and the advantages of active management capabilities have been highlighted. The company's strong shareholder background (the majority shareholder Junyao Group's comprehensive business layout) provides important support for the company's trust business on the asset side. At the same time, the company's flexible private management mechanism and market-based incentive mechanism (the first private enterprise in mainland China since the reform and opening up) have also attracted a large number of excellent external teams and established a talent base for active management of business development. Profit forecast We remain unchanged at the 2019/2020e profit forecast of 145/17.1 billion yuan. The valuation corresponds to the proposed company's current stock price of 1.6x P/B in '19, maintaining the recommended rating and target price of $14.77, corresponding to 2.2x P/B in '19 and 16.5x P/E in '19, with a 35% margin compared to the current stock price. Risk trust and leasing business growth and asset quality are below expectations; regulatory uncertainty.

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