台海核电(002366):18年业绩大幅下降 关注核电设备业务发展

Taiwan Strait Nuclear Power (002366): 18 years of substantial decline in performance and focus on the development of nuclear power equipment business

方正證券 ·  04/26/2019  · Researches

Event: the company announced the 2018 annual report that the company realized operating income of 1.38 billion yuan in 2018, a decrease of 44.14% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 336 million yuan, a decrease of 66.90% over the same period last year, corresponding to 0.39 yuan per share. Cash dividend of 0.39 yuan (including tax) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares.

Comments: operating income, return to the mother of net profit have declined significantly compared with the same period last year. (1) during the reporting period, the company's operating income was 1.38 billion yuan, down 44.14% from the same period last year, mainly because: during the reporting period, due to the delay in bidding for new domestic nuclear power projects and the slowdown in construction, the company's new orders fell short of expectations. among them, the company's operating income in the nuclear power industry decreased by 47.10% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 71.06% of the total revenue; and the business income in other special equipment industries decreased by 38.04% compared with the same period last year. (2) the company's homing net profit dropped significantly by 66.90% compared with the same period last year, which exceeded the decline in operating income, mainly due to the following reasons: the change in the structure of ① products and the decline in gross profit margin of petrochemical equipment products led to a 6.65% year-on-year decline in the company's overall gross profit margin; during the ② reporting period, the company's financial expenses increased by 28.31% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in current loans and financial leases. During the ③ reporting period, the company's management expenses increased by 21.92% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in staff salaries and other expenses; the asset impairment loss of ④ increased by 14 million yuan compared with the previous period, mainly due to the increase in bad debt losses over the same period last year. (3) the cash inflow of operating activities increased by 34.03% over the previous period, mainly because the sales rebate of the current period increased by 25.73%, and the cash outflow of operating activities decreased by 10.87% compared with the previous period. the main reason is that the expenditure on purchasing raw materials in the current period is 10.94% lower than that in the previous period and the taxes paid are 44.34% lower than that in the previous period. Under the combined influence of cash inflow and outflow from business activities, the net cash inflow from business activities in the current period increased by 427.15% over the previous period, and liquidity improved significantly.

The domestic nuclear island main pipeline industry leader is expected to benefit from the batch construction of third-generation nuclear power units. The company is an important supplier of the main pipeline of nuclear islands in China, with a market share of more than 60% since 2016, with outstanding competitive advantages and a solid leading position. The company has the most advanced materials and equipment core manufacturing technology, covering the current Hualong 1, AP1000, CAP1400 and other mainstream technology routes, with high technical barriers and advantages. According to the 13th five-year Plan for Energy Development, by 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power in operation will reach 58 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity under construction will reach more than 3000 kilowatts. At present, there is still a shortfall of 30 million kilowatts. In addition, Huang Feng, head of the policy research group of the expert Committee of the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, said that China's third-generation nuclear power already has the conditions for batch construction, and it is expected that the third-generation nuclear power will enter the mass construction stage in the late period of the 13th five-year Plan. The company is expected to fully benefit from the follow-up promotion of the batch construction of nuclear power units, with broad space for development.

Layout of small nuclear islands and nuclear power after the market, actively extend the value chain of nuclear power products.

While the company has the manufacturing capacity of high-end materials, it actively promotes the process of high-end equipment manufacturing and engineering services. In recent years, with its excellent manufacturing capacity, the company has mastered the manufacturing technology of key equipment for small nuclear island main equipment, which can be used to realize the modular manufacture of pressure vessels, pressure regulators, evaporators and main pipes. it is expected to take the lead in the construction of small nuclear power reactors in the future. At the same time, through the introduction, digestion and absorption of foreign advanced technology, the company has mastered the manufacturing technology of spent fuel storage and transportation containers and the equipment manufacturing technology of nuclear waste reprocessing system. At present, there is a huge demand for nuclear waste disposal in China, and the first year of the outbreak of the whole line is just around the corner. The company has mastered the key technology of nuclear waste disposal and is expected to achieve domestic monopoly. According to the company's announcement, the market space for nuclear waste disposal will reach 30 billion yuan per year.

Enrich the structure of non-nuclear products and constantly cultivate new growth points. While focusing on the main business and enhancing competitiveness, the company relies on technological advantages to actively lay out the development of new energy, clean environmental protection, new petrochemical equipment and other emerging industries to cultivate new profit growth points. For example, in the nuclear power equipment modular manufacturing project, in addition to nuclear power products, with the versatility of forging manufacturing, the company gives full play to its downstream expansion capability. the application of high-end forging manufacturing capacity to petrochemical, thermal power, hydropower, marine engineering, metallurgy and other high-end civilian products, has a higher technical threshold and market prospects.

Earnings Forecast and rating: considering the company's leading position in nuclear power equipment, our forecasts for the company's EPS for 2019-20-21 are 0.49max, 0.67max, 0.93, respectively, corresponding to the 2019-20-21 year PE is 26-19-14 times, giving the company a "recommended" rating.

Risk hint: nuclear power equipment business is lower than expected, capital increase projects are lower than expected, and new business expansion is lower than expected.

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