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苏利股份(603585)年报点评:百菌清持续高景气 宁夏项目打开成长空间

國聯證券 ·  Apr 21, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report. It achieved full-year revenue of 1,646 billion yuan, an increase of 12.99% over the previous year; realized net profit of 312 million yuan, an increase of 38.97% over the previous year; and realized net profit of 312 million yuan, an increase of 39.97% over the previous year after deducting non-return net profit of 301 million yuan. Key investment points: Promycin continues to have a high level of prosperity, driving the company's performance growth. The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers supporting phthalonitrile, a key intermediate. The performance growth in 2018 was mainly due to the continued boom in the main product, Baijiuqing. Since the domestic environmental protection inspection in the past two years, it has experienced a high boom that has continued for more than two years. The corresponding price has risen from the average price of 3.8 w/ton in 17 to 51,000 yuan/ton in 2018. Currently, the price remains at 55,000 yuan/ton. Considering that there is still a large supply gap for Baqin in the next 1-2 years, Baijiuqing can be cleaned Continue to maintain 1 -2 years of high prosperity. The company has plenty of reserve projects. As an important medium- to long-term profit growth point, the company still has many new projects to be completed and put into operation in the future, including: in terms of pesticides, the company's technical improvement project for pesticide formulation products with an annual output of 9,000 tons is expected to be completed on December 31, 2019, and the annual production of 1,000 tons of pyridinamide project is expected to be completed by December 31, 2020; in terms of flame retardants, the company's annual production of 15,000 tons of decabromodiphenyl ethylene and related supporting projects is expected to be completed on June 30, 2020. Completion. The commissioning of these projects will become an important profit growth point for the company in the future. The Ningxia project opens up room for future growth and has broad imagination. In order to improve the company's industrial layout and medium- to long-term strategic development plans and further optimize the company's business structure, the company established Suli (Ningxia) New Material Technology Co., Ltd. in December 2018 at the Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. It plans to invest in the construction of a number of fine chemical product production lines related to pesticides, flame retardants, fertilizers and new materials, with a total scale of 168,500 tons, using the superior resources and vast development space of the central and western regions to improve the company's product structure and enhance the company's overall competitiveness and risk resistance Competence cultivates new profit growth points for the company. Profit forecasts and ratings expect the company's EPS from 2019 to 2021 to be 2.05 yuan, 2.37 yuan, and 2.66 yuan respectively, corresponding to the latest closing price PE of 12 times, 11 times, and 10 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating. Risk warning. The progress of the new project fell short of expectations; the performance of promycin fell short of expectations; the exchange rate fluctuated greatly

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