Event
During the three days of the Qingming Festival, Zhangjiajie received a total of 1.2508 million tourists, an increase of 13.19% over the same period last year; tourism revenue reached 802 million yuan, an increase of 18.64% over the same period last year; of which the Wulingyuan core scenic spot received 46900 tourists at one time, an increase of 11% over the same period last year; the growth rate is better than that of the whole country (the total number of domestic tourists received during the Qingming Festival holiday was 112 million, an increase of 10.9% over the same period last year. Tourism revenue reached 47.89 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7% over the same period last year. Especially compared with last year (the number of ticket purchases in Wulingyuan core scenic spot dropped 18.9% year on year), Zhangjiajie tourism market showed obvious restorative growth.
Brief comment
The traffic condition of the scenic spot has improved, and the listed companies have benefited obviously.
Due to the construction of road closure, passenger flow in Zhangjiajie core scenic area grew slowly in the past two years, and this situation improved significantly in 2019: Wulingshan Avenue, which connects Zhangjiajie urban area with Wulingyuan core scenic area, was opened to traffic on December 28, 2018 after 21 months of closure construction. Compared with the original secondary highway, the new Wulingshan Avenue has an obvious effect on relieving passenger flow. after it is opened to traffic, the time from Zhangjiajie to Wulingyuan core scenic spot is shortened from 40 minutes to 20-25 minutes, and it takes only 15 minutes for high-speed railway station to Wulingyuan. Yangjiajie Avenue, which ② connects Zhangsang Expressway and Yangjiajie Scenic spot of the company, has been opened to traffic before the Spring Festival in 2019 after two years of closed construction. The connection of Yangjiajie Avenue can not only shorten the distance from Zhangjiajie City to Yangjiajie Scenic spot ticket Station, but also divert passenger flow in peak season and alleviate traffic pressure. The company's core business of environmental protection passenger transport, Yangjiajie ropeway and Shili Gallery are all located in the core scenic area of Wulingyuan, especially the Yangjiajie ropeway, which directly benefits from the recovery of passenger flow in the core scenic area brought about by traffic improvement.
Holiday data fully verify that traffic will continue to improve in the future.
Benefiting from the improvement of traffic conditions in the core scenic spots, the tourism market in Zhangjiajie Spring Festival Golden week has achieved restorative growth. During the Spring Festival holiday, the Wulingyuan core scenic spot received 147000 visitors, an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year. It is expected that major scenic spots such as the company's environmentally friendly passenger transport, Yangjiajie cableway and Shili Gallery will benefit significantly. The data of Qingming Festival short holiday have been verified again. In the future, the traffic situation in Zhangjiajie will continue to improve, and the radiation scope of the scenic spot will be enhanced for a long time: this year, the Guizhou-Zhangchang Express Railway will be opened to traffic; Zhangjiahuai High-speed Railway is expected to be put into use in 2021, connecting Zhangjiajie and Fenghuang Scenic area; and Jingzhang High-speed Railway has been under construction.
The ancient city of Dayong opened this year, bringing new profit growth points.
The Dayong ancient city project, which the company focuses on, is the key to business transformation and will be built into a cultural tourism complex, which integrates eating, drinking, entertainment, shopping and entertainment. From the perspective of business attributes, the ancient city of Dayong is an important strategy for the company to transform from traditional sightseeing to leisure vacation. At present, the progress of the project has reached 93.50%, the main construction of the ancient city of Dayong has been basically completed, and the two core service projects large-scale folk performing arts "meet Dayong" and flying cinemas have been basically completed. It is estimated that after the operation is mature, the annual operating income will reach 425 million yuan and the net profit will reach 185 million. After the completion of the project, it will inject power into the long-term development of the company.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company's endogenesis + extension is expected to achieve results in the future, and the level of income and passenger flow is expected to be improved; at the same time, the company's Dayong ancient city project will open up long-term growth space for the company.
It is estimated that from 2019 to 2021, the EPS will be 0.07,0.08,0.1 yuan respectively, and the stock price corresponding to PE will be 104,87,73 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: continuous reduction in ticket prices, lower-than-expected progress in the ancient city of Dayong, natural disasters and so on.