The passenger flow has been stable in the past 18 years, the income has been dragged down by the price reduction by 15%, and the reduction of three fees has brought a big increase in deduction non-net profit.
18 years revenue 468 million / drop 14.78%, net profit 26.4 million / drop 60.8%, due to 17 years of disposal of visitor centers and other equity brought about 42.6698 million, but not for 18 years. Deducting 21.18 million of non-net profit / a sharp increase of 4142% benefited from: 1) gross profit margin increased to 31.52%; 2) sales and management fees decreased 0.93pct and 0.76pct to 4.84% and 17.16%; 3) interest expenses decreased due to the capitalization of special loan interest and the decrease of working capital loans in Dayong ancient city, and the financial rate was reduced by 2.31pct to 0.89%.
18Q4 revenue is 102 million / down 16.97%, net profit and loss is 28 million (vs 17Q4 loss 3 million), deducting non-net profit loss 29 million (vs 17Q4 loss 45 million), off-season is affected by price reduction (price reduction from September 22, 18, Wulingyuan scenic spot including green car tickets reduced from 245 yuan in peak season to 120 yuan in off-season to 225 yuan in peak season to 225 yuan in off-season).
In terms of passenger flow, the overall number of tourists received was 5.9649 million / an increase of 0.25%. Among them, Baofeng Lake increased by 12.72%; Shili Gallery tourist trams increased by 8.29%; environmental protection passenger transport decreased by 2.85%; Yangjiajie ropeway decreased by 11.7%. Due to the influence of the construction of Wulingshan Avenue, traffic control was implemented on the Baizhangxia section of Wulingyuan District and the section from the city to Forest Park, so that the Yangjiajie ropeway was closed relative to the core scenic area.
In terms of revenue, revenue from environmentally friendly passenger transport and travel agencies, which account for 63% of total revenue, fell by 15.15% and 30% respectively. Among them, 1) the price of environmental protection passenger transport in Wulingyuan core scenic spot has been reduced; 2) Zhangjiajie China Travel Service has closed its landing business due to the influence of policy.
The construction of the ancient city of Dayong is smooth, and traffic improvement promotes accessibility.
The ancient city of Dayong (with an investment of 2.2 billion yuan and estimated annual revenue of 425 million yuan) has now entered the final stage. The large-scale folk performing arts "meeting Dayong" and the Flying Cinema, the core project, have been completed. The ancient city of Dayong is expected to open at the end of the third quarter of this year. This project is the key to the transformation of Zhangjiajie into a leisure vacation.
With the full opening of Wulingshan Avenue in December 2018, the half-hour economic circle of "downtown area-Wulingyuan city" in Zhangjiajie has been formally formed. In addition, by the end of 2019, the Qianzhang-Changzhou Express Railway, the Zhangsang High-speed Railway and a number of popular domestic routes will be opened, and the cost of travel time will be greatly reduced.
Profit forecast: the company plans to receive 7.1575 million tourists / increase 19.99% and operating income 540.0167 million / increase 15.29% in 2019. The fare reduction of the scenic spot has a great impact on the company's earnings, reducing the EPS by 2019 and 2020 to 0.07,0.10 respectively, and introducing the EPS of 2021 to 0.11 yuan, as the stock price has reflected the earnings downgrade expectation and maintained the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the external competition is becoming increasingly fierce, the traditional ticket economy is difficult to sustain. There are uncertain factors in the business situation of Dayong ancient city.