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美尚生态(300495):定增到位保障项目顺利推进 积极布局多元业务

國泰君安 ·  Mar 14, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Stable financing+fixed growth combined with corporate bonds/short-term financing will ensure the smooth progress of the company's business; the company has accelerated the expansion of various businesses such as ecological restoration, mining and soil restoration, and wood fun, and the competitive advantage of the entire industry chain has increased. Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings. We maintain our forecast that the company's 2018/19/20 EPS is 0.64/0.86/1.13 yuan, with a growth rate of 35/34/ 32%; considering recent increases in risk appetites/construction valuation repairs and referring to comparable companies in the industry, we gave the company 19 times PE in 2019, raising the target price to 16.34 yuan, increasing holdings. Stable financing+fixed growth are in place to ensure the smooth progress of the business. 1) The January-February Social Finance Stabilization+ Central Committee emphasized that “enhancing the real economic capabilities of financial services” is conducive to the continuous improvement of the private enterprise financing environment; 2) The company issued an announcement on March 12 to raise about 79.49 million shares at 11.7 yuan/share, with a total capital amount of about 930 million yuan for project operations; the subscribed parties are Wuxi Guolian Xinmei Investment Center/Wuxi Cultural Tourism Phase I Industrial Investment Center/Jiangsu Xinyangzi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. (the first two have a background in Wuxi state-owned assets), locked in one year; 3) Fixed growth to finance superposition companies such as short-term bonds Promote the implementation and promotion of the company's ongoing projects and new ones The signing of projects is speeding up, and future revenue certainty will increase; 4) The central government has made it clear that there must be no defaulting on private enterprise accounts+ that new officials must not ignore old accounts. We believe that it will benefit the company's account collection work and cash flow will improve. PPP ushered in a triple restoration, and the company actively lays out diversified businesses to enhance competitive advantage. 1) On March 8, the Ministry of Finance issued a triple restoration of PPP (significant reduction in policy risk/significant improvement in financing/reduction in risk of government default), and PPP entered a period of regulatory maturity; 2) the company actively developed the “ecological restoration+ecological cultural tourism” business model and firmly expanded various businesses such as Muqu/mining and soil restoration; currently, mine restoration ① signed the first batch of 3300 million yuan of “Juxian County Mine Ecological Management and Restoration Projects” ② Approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources by the Ministry of Natural Resources; 3) Actively promoting garden robot business; 4) In January 2018, employee shareholding of 150 million yuan was completed (previously reinstated, 14.53 yuan). Catalysts: Core risks such as a steady recovery in infrastructure growth, continued easing of capital, and marginal improvements in the PPP model: order execution and progress falling short of expectations, capital tightening, sluggish infrastructure growth, etc.

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