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湘潭电化(002125)2018年业绩快报点评:锰酸锂正极是未来重要看点 原材料供应商向新能源材料公司转型

浙商證券 ·  Feb 28, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Key Investment Announces Annual Results: 2018 revenue of 1,079 million yuan, up 45.6% year on year; Q4 single quarter revenue of 314 million yuan, up 48% year on year; annual net profit of 71 million yuan, up 50% year on year; within the scope of the previously announced performance revision forecast. Comment: Electrolytic manganese dioxide benefited from the growth of manganese acid cathode material growth in 2018 compared to the same period last year, mainly due to increased sales of electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) products and rising product prices; in 2018, according to Xinluo News statistics on 19 domestic manganate companies, demand for manganese acid cathode surged, with an annual output of 54,000 tons, an increase of 31% over the previous year; leading the growth rate and three other cathode varieties. Under the influence of declining subsidies for new energy vehicles and marketing promotion, their price advantage was outstanding and competitive. Due to the decline in the price of raw materials, in February 2019, the price of cathode manganate was 36,000 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the price of 55,000 yuan/ton decreased by 34%; it still maintains the best cost performance among the four cathode materials. Therefore, there is a wide range of demand in fields such as ternary doping, electric bicycles, and scooters for the elderly. We believe that although there are certain flaws in technology, circulation performance, energy density, etc., it will actually need to be applied on a large scale in the future. The advantages of low price and easy access are unparalleled advantages. Source of growth in 2019: The main project for the cathode material project to produce 20,000 tons of high-performance manganate batteries has been completed and has entered the production stage. In recent years, as the application of manganese acid batteries in electric bicycles, four-wheel low-speed vehicles, electric vehicles, etc., and ternary materials mixed with keng manganate have increased market demand for cathode materials, the company's sales of cathode materials for manganese acid batteries have grown at an average annual rate of more than 40% in the past three years; according to the price: Yijing, Xitan, the main business revenue is expected to increase further; according to the price: Yijing, Xitan Baichuan News, 91% Standard electrolyzed manganese dioxide, the mercury-free alkaline price is about 12,500 yuan/ton/ton, and the normal type is about 11,000 yuan to 12,000 yuan per tonne; the price increased by about 1,000 to 2,000 yuan respectively from the beginning of the year; profits have returned reasonably, and we think this price is likely to be maintained. Profit forecasting and valuation The company's performance was slightly lower than our expectations, mainly because the price increase for electrolytic manganese dioxide fell short of expectations, and we moderately lowered our 2019 profit forecast. The performance EPS for 2019-2020 is expected to be 0.38, 0.50 yuan/share, and the corresponding PE is 21 times and 16 times; considering that the company is an important part of the future Keng battery pattern, the company's shareholding rating is maintained;

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