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彩生活(1778.HK):风险可控 维持增持评级

申萬宏源研究 ·  Feb 12, 2019 00:00  · Researches

We expect the community service operator Lottery Life Service to actively promote the development of value-added services while achieving a steady expansion in management scale, while the potential impact from the slowdown in sales by group developers and the new social security levy regulations during the same period is quite manageable. Considering the future pace of debt repayment, we slightly lowered the company's net profit forecast value per share in 2018 to 0.38 yuan (up 19% year over year), and raised the net profit forecast value per share for 2019 to 2020 to 0.51 yuan (up 34% year over year) and 0.57 yuan (up 12% year on year), respectively. We adjusted the company's target price to HK$5.3, corresponding to 9 times the 19-year PE, and maintain the increase in wealth. By the end of November 2018, the company's total platform service area was nearly 1.2 billion square meters, including 530 million square meters of contract management area (484 million square meters compared to the end of June 2018), which lays an important foundation for generating revenue from basic property management services; and 670 million square meters of cooperation area (compared to 497 million square meters at the end of June 2018), which provided sufficient user reserves for the development of value-added services. Specifically, in addition to the Vientiane M&A completed in March 2018, adding about 20 million square meters of management area, Color Life has achieved considerable endogenous growth mainly through market expansion, while also establishing multiple joint ventures to enrich management formats (such as undertaking three supply and one industry projects, etc.) and explore overseas markets (such as Vietnam, etc.). Furthermore, in January 2019, the company announced that it had fully repaid a short-term loan of 1 billion yuan borrowed in early February 2018 (of which 310 million yuan was repaid before the end of 2018 and the remaining 690 million yuan in January 2019). It is expected to save interest expenses, optimize the debt structure, and reduce financial burden in the future, thereby releasing certain profits while maintaining a cautious attitude towards mergers and acquisitions. As a pioneer in exploring value-added services in the industry, by the end of November 2018, the number of registered users of the company's online platform, Caizhiyun, was close to 20 million, and the number of active users exceeded 4 million. In addition, the platform's cumulative turnover in the first 11 months of 2018 increased 37% year-on-year to 8.3 billion yuan. Among them, Caifu Life is still the best product, and the newly launched Caihui Life at the end of March 2018 is also gaining momentum, with a cumulative turnover of 61 million yuan. We expect value-added services to still contribute second only to basic property management services, and their gross profit contribution is expected to increase from 31% in 2017 to 33% in 2020. The company is positioned as an independent third party property management company, and its contract management scale is stable. Among them, the contribution from group developers over the years is only about 1%, and the remaining 99% comes from third-party projects, which shows the company's strong market expansion capabilities, while the negative impact of future slowdown in new home sales from group developers, which the market is concerned about, is quite manageable. Furthermore, considering that strict implementation of the new social security regulations will lead to an increase in labor costs, the company began exploring methods such as property ordering to reduce policy impact. At the same time, because its remuneration ratio for management area ranked first in the industry, as high as 65% (compared with 46% for CNOOC Properties, 2% for Greentown Services, and only 0.3% for Country Garden Services), the gross margin under the remuneration system is 100%, and the profit margin pressure is expected to be less than that of its peers. The company's stock price has risen 7% year to date, and the current valuation is 7 times 19-year PE, compared to the industry average 19 times 19-year PE. Considering the future pace of debt repayment, we slightly lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2018 from $0.40 to $0.38 (up 19% year over year), and raised the net profit forecast value per share for 2019-2020 from 0.50 yuan and 0.55 yuan to 0.51 yuan (up 34% year over year) and 0.57 yuan (up 12% year over year), respectively. Considering the recent market weakness, and the company's mid-tier market positioning and fee level, the profitability per square meter is weaker than that of the industry, we adjusted the company's target price to HK$5.3 (the original target price was HK$8.3), which corresponds to 9 times the 19-year PE. Currently, there is room for an 18.6% increase in the stock price compared to the new target price. We maintain the lottery life service rating.

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