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张家界(000430):春节黄金周景区客流复苏 杨家界大道如期通车

中信建投證券 ·  Feb 12, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incidents During the 2019 Spring Festival Golden Week, Zhangjiajie received a total of 1,8548 million visitors, an increase of 17.5% over the previous year; it achieved tourism revenue of 1,857 billion yuan, an increase of 35.05% over the previous year. Among them, the Wulingyuan core scenic area received 146,666 visitors, an increase of 13.47% over the previous year, and Baofeng Lake, an increase of 61.47% over the previous year. At the same time, the city received a total of 98,454 group visitors, an increase of 49.13% over the previous year. The number of group visitors within China was 95,395, an increase of 49.92% over the previous year, and the number of inbound group visitors was 3059, an increase of 28.15% over the previous year. Briefly, the rainy and snowy weather did not affect the desire to travel. The tourist flow to scenic spots recovered strongly. During the Spring Festival Golden Week this year, the scenic spots involved in the company's core business all performed well. The company's business revenue mainly comes from travel agencies, environmentally friendly passenger transport, Shili Gallery sightseeing tram, Baofeng Lake, Yangjiajie ropeway, etc. Among them, environmentally friendly passenger transportation and Yangjiajie ropeway are all related to the core scenic area of Wulingyuan. In 2018, the number of people entering the Wulingyuan core scenic area was the same as the previous year, while this year's scenic area showed high growth (especially under the influence of rain and snow), and the recovery trend is obvious. In addition, tickets to Baofeng Lake also accounted for more than 13% of the company's revenue, and the scenic area achieved rapid growth during the Spring Festival (in 2018, the number of visitors to Baofeng Lake was 0.68 million, and at a growth rate of 61.47%, it is expected to reach 11,000 this year). The number of group visitors has increased dramatically, which favors the development of travel agency business, and the number of group visitors in Zhangjiajie has also shown a significant increase this year, indicating that the travel agency business of the company's Zhangjiajie China Travel Agency is growing well. According to the 2018 semi-annual report, travel agency business revenue accounted for 27.86% of total revenue, which is only the environmentally friendly passenger transport business. At the same time, the travel agency business is not affected by ticket downgrades, and overall profitability remains stable, which can form stable support for the company's performance. Yangjiajie Avenue was opened to traffic. Future traffic improvements in Zhangjiajie Yangjiajie Avenue is not only the province's “13th Five-Year Plan” transportation development planning and construction project, but also a key project for the development and construction of western tourism in Zhangjiajie City. It can connect the Zhangjiajie city area, the Zhangsang Expressway, and the core scenic area of Wulingyuan. During the Spring Festival this year, Yangjiajie Avenue was officially opened to traffic, shortening the driving distance from Zhangjiajie City to the core scenic area of Wulingyuan to 40 minutes. At the same time, Yangjiajie Avenue also diverted traffic from the scenic area. During the Spring Festival, visitors entering the Wulingyuan core scenic area from the Yangjiajie ticket station did not need to line up, and there was no need to line up to ride the Yangjiajie ropeway up the mountain, greatly improving the visitors' experience. The completion of Yangjiajie Avenue is beneficial to the company's Yangjiajie ropeway business, which is expected to usher in restorative growth. In the future, the Zhangjiajie Scenic Area will continue to benefit from the advancement of railway construction: 1) this year will welcome the opening of the Qianzhangchang Express Railway; 2) In 2021, the Zhang Jihuai High Speed Rail is expected to be put into use, opening up the Zhangjiajie and Fenghuang Scenic Area; 3) The Jingzhang High Speed Rail is already under construction. Investment advice: We believe that in the future, traffic conditions in the company's scenic spots will continue to improve, and the passenger flow side is expected to improve; at the same time, the company is the only local listing platform, which is expected to receive government support and ease the pressure brought about by the project. It is estimated that the EPS for 2018-2020 will be 0.07, 0.07, and 0.08 yuan, respectively, and the stock price corresponding to PE will be 76, 74, and 67 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: passenger flow in the ancient city of Dayong falls short of expectations; uncertainty caused by weather factors; geopolitical risks.

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