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SPT ENERGY GROUP(01251.HK):油市担忧

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jan 4, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  Oil prices have fallen by more than 35% since their peak in October '18. Based on concerns about the future of the oil market, we lowered the company's earnings per paving forecast for '18 from RMB 0.06 to RMB 0.05, the earnings per paving forecast for '19 from RMB 0.13 to RMB 0.08, and the earnings per paving forecast for 2020 from RMB 0.17 to RMB 0.15. We lowered the company's target price from HK$1.64 to HK$0.96, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 10.0 times in '19. The company's asset-light strategy is appropriate, and domestic natural gas opportunities are highlighted. We remain optimistic about the company's future development and maintain our buying rating. The oil market is concerned. Oil prices have fallen by more than 35% since their peak in October '18. Concerns about oversupply have intensified in '19. We are cautious about the increase in oil-related capital expenditure of oil companies in '19. About 50% of Huayu's revenue in '17 came from petroleum-related service revenue. We lowered the company's '18 paving earnings per share forecast from RMB 0.06 to RMB 0.05, downgraded the earnings per paving forecast for '19 from RMB 0.13 to RMB 0.08, and the earnings per paving forecast for '20 from RMB 0.17 to RMB 0.15. The asset-light strategy has had remarkable results. We expect that the impact of low oil prices on CNPC will be less than that of its peers. Under the guidance of the company's asset-light strategy, the company's capital expenditure is strictly controlled, and some assets in use have also been fully depreciated, resulting in depreciation and amortization expenses and impairment preparation costs falling by 14% and 96% respectively, driving the mid-2018 operating profit to turn a loss into a profit, and the balance ratio fell further from 50.8% at the end of '17 to 46.6% in mid-'18. We believe that under the strategic guidance of strictly controlling capital expenditure, the company can continue to create value for shareholders even at low oil prices. Natural gas opportunities. Based on national energy security considerations, the government urges domestic producers to increase capital expenditure related to natural gas to meet the growing demand for natural gas. Considering the considerable reserves and suitable geological extraction conditions, we believe that the Tarim gas field, southwest oil and gas field, and Changqing oil and gas field will be the main investment areas. At the end of '18, we observed rising rents for key oilfield production equipment, such as high-depth drilling rigs and high-horsepower fracturing pumps, and extensive personnel recruitment in these regions, confirming the strength of capital expenditure growth in '19. Given that Huayu is one of the major private operators in these regions, we expect CNPC to be one of the key beneficiaries of the increase in natural gas-related spending. Maintain the buy rating. Based on concerns about the future of the oil market, we lowered the company's 18-year paving earnings per share forecast from RMB 0.06 to RMB 0.05, the paving earnings per share forecast for 2019 from RMB 0.13 to RMB 0.08, and the paving earnings forecast for 2020 from RMB 0.17 to RMB 0.15. We lowered the company's target price from HK$1.64 to HK$0.96, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 10.0 times in '19. The company's asset-light strategy is appropriate, and domestic natural gas opportunities are highlighted. We remain optimistic about the company's future development. We maintain our buy rating.

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