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跨境通(002640)动态跟踪:黑五数据亮眼 贸易战暂缓利于公司估值恢复

東方證券 ·  Dec 4, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The core view “Black Five” data is growing rapidly, and the leading edge is becoming more and more prominent. During the “Black Friday” campaign, the company achieved a GMV of more than 1.4 billion yuan in export business, an increase of more than 45% over the previous year. Among them, Gearbest increased by more than 55% year on year, and the clothing division increased by more than 40%. By region, the company's growth rate in potential countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, and Portugal was as high as 68.9%; in emerging markets such as the Philippines and India, the growth rate reached 470%, and sales in the Belt and Road countries such as Israel and Poland reached the top ten in the region. By category, mobile phones, home gardening, and smartwatches occupy the top three positions, and the company's independent brands have achieved rapid growth of 45.5%, showing the ability to grow sustainably. The trade war between China and the US has been suspended, and the improvement of domestic cross-border import policies has further benefited Youyi e-commerce. At the G20 summit, the leaders of China and the US reached a consensus that tariffs will not be added for the time being. The company's logistics exports to the US are mainly small packages, which apply to individuals, and the tax exemption limit of 800 US dollars is applied to individuals. It is expected that market sentiment will be repaired as the trade war eases. In terms of cross-border imports, the domestic single tax concession amount was raised from 2,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan, and the annual amount was raised from 20,000 yuan to 26,000 yuan. With the continuous improvement and regulation of the cross-border import policy, the advantages of the subsidiary Youyi E-commerce will also be enhanced. Core managers have been fully motivated, and the governance structure has been further improved. In July, the company launched the fifth stock options incentive plan, which granted 70 million options to executives and 22 core executives. The exercise conditions were that the company's 18-20 net profit was not less than 1 billion, 1.3 billion, and 1.5 billion dollars, respectively. In November, the board of directors elected Mr. Xu Jiadong as the new chairman to steer the listed company. The management structure became more clear in 2018. Continue to be optimistic about the company's future trend of becoming stronger in the export B2C business field. Cross-border e-commerce is a typical capital-driven industry. The capital scale advantage brought about by the company's earliest listing in the industry will push its endogenous growth rate to maintain a continuous leading trend. At the same time, the extended growth brought about by the company's open mergers and acquisitions and full incentives will also continue to be highlighted, and the company's business scale and performance will continue to rise. After 17 and 18 years of integration and consolidation of the company's business, its refined operation capabilities in big data operations, supply chain management and online marketing promotion have continued to improve. The platform-based strategy is progressing steadily, the customer shopping experience has been enhanced, the inventory structure has been optimized, and the operating cash flow has improved markedly over the past 18 years, continuously widening the scale gap with competitors. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations We maintain our profit forecasts for the company's 2018-2020 earnings per share of 0.79 yuan, 1.05 yuan and 1.38 yuan respectively, maintain the company's PE valuation 17 times in 2018, corresponding to the target price of 13.43 yuan, and maintain the company's “buy” rating. Risks indicate risks such as trade policies between China and the US, exchange rate fluctuations, new business development, and major shareholders' pledges.

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