Keystone

Recently, we have tracked and investigated the channel providers of the company, and the core information is as follows:

1. Manufacturers take the initiative to control the goods in the fourth quarter, and the current channel inventory is low.

two。 The company has sent excellent regional managers in the province to key markets outside the province to comprehensively manage the local investment promotion and consumer training work, with greater support.

3. The upgrading trend of mass consumption remains unchanged, and it is obvious that Liankouzi cellar and other small and medium-sized brands continue to harvest the share of other small and medium-sized brands in the province.

Point of view update:

The growth space of raw pulp at the price of 100,800 yuan in the province is big enough, and the business team ploughs deeply into the township market to deeply grasp the upgrading of mass consumption in the whole province. The company has formed a clear brand, scale and channel advantages in the province, and even in the town market, a business team of 3 or 4 people can be stationed for a long time to develop terminals and banquet customers with local dealers. The raw pulp of the second high-end year was the first to break out in urban areas, and we expect revenue to grow by 72% in 18 years, 49% in 1919. The township market is generally upgrading to Gift / Gu 5. The growth rate of Gu5 in some areas has reached 50% this year, and the county-level market has begun to upgrade to the sub-high end. In the next three to five years, we expect the county and township level to further upgrade to the sub-high-end price. The annual raw pulp has formed a good regional and price progressive upgrading trend in the province.

The annual consumption of Anhui liquor is about 500,000 to 600,000 tons, and we estimate that the middle grade and above of Gujing tribute liquor account for about 8%, which has more room for further improvement. Mid-and low-end brands in the province continue to shrink due to the upgrading of mainstream market prices, and Gujing and Kouzi cellar continue to harvest market share.

The company is one of the few provincial leaders with national capacity, is firmly promoting, but is facing fierce competition and high-intensity cost investment. As one of the eight famous wines, vintage raw pulp continues to improve its brand strength through the promotion of CCTV and high-speed railway stations, and strengthens its strong channel model. The company has a clear compound advantage in the middle and high-end prices. This advantage can be replicated outside the province, but the talent team and costs limit the speed of expansion. We expect the company to adopt a point-by-point breakthrough and gradual progress. The company's main competitors are local brands and tasty new, fierce competition, the need for continuous high-intensity marketing investment.

Suggestion

Due to the increase in sales fees, the 18 EPS 19% Universe was reduced by 4.7% to 3.28 RMB. The current price corresponds to 18max 19 17/13xPE, lowering the target price by 4.6 per cent to 104.8 yuan, and corresponding to 18gamma 19 32/25xPE. The target price has 88 per cent room to rise, maintaining the recommendation.

Risk

If the company's expenses are invested too aggressively, the profits may not meet expectations.