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金固股份(002488)深度报告:携手阿里塑造S2B2C模式 维修保养龙头起航在即

Jingu shares (002488) in-depth report: join hands with BABA to shape the S2B2C mode repair and maintenance leader is about to set sail

招商證券 ·  Dec 16, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Car maintenance has entered the golden era, Jinguo hand in hand with BABA to shape the S2b2C model will become the industry leader!

Steel wheel faucet, the leader of the post-market. Jingu is a domestic steel wheel leader with obvious technical advantages, and it is one of the few enterprises that can directly enter the OEM market and the international procurement system of GM and Daimler. Expanding the automotive aftermarket is the company's core strategy, the company through the integration of supply chain and service chain, so that the after-market business has developed at a high speed. At present, "Auto Superman" has become a leader in the post-market, ranking in the forefront of the industry in terms of the number of active users and monthly running water.

The automobile maintenance industry has entered a golden era, and policy + "giant layout" drives the qualitative change of the industry. Car ownership and aging determine that the maintenance industry will enter the golden era, and it is estimated that the market space for automobile maintenance in China will reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2020. With the promotion of anti-monopoly policy, the rise of independent maintenance vendors is an inevitable trend, and the in-depth layout of Internet giants (ATJ) will inevitably rewrite the industry pattern and accelerate the development of the industry. After the big waves, the industry has ushered in a qualitative change.

Join hands with BABA to complete the reconstruction of the business model, and the industry leader will set sail soon. Referring to foreign countries, the construction of supply chain and service chain is a necessary gene for leading companies. Jingu builds a new retail S2b2C model: cooperate with BABA to build a supply chain and share BABA's massive online data; at the same time, reshape offline "Auto Superman" stores through mergers and acquisitions, and empower stores in ways such as SaaS system, so as to achieve unified output of supply chain, brand, management and services. The S2b2C model is expected to transform the industry, and Jingu is expected to become an industry leader in the future.

There is no lack of bright spots in high-end manufacturing, and EPS equipment is expected to start quantity quickly. The company has been ploughing the steel wheel business for many years, and the weight and appearance of the latest generation of products are comparable to those of aluminum wheels. Product and customer upgrades will drive the steady growth of steel wheel business. The pollution of steel pickling is serious, and the green treatment method is extremely urgent. Compared with traditional pickling, EPS equipment has obvious advantages and no pollution, and the demand for EPS equipment is expected to surge under the pressure of environmental protection. The company's EPS equipment is exclusive in China, and it is expected to expand the quantity quickly in the follow-up.

Investment and rating: we expect the company's 2018-2020 revenue to be 3.246 billion, 2.468 billion and 2.895 billion, net profit 201 million, 311 million and 446 million, EPS 0.20,0.31 and 0.44 yuan, year-on-year growth rates of 273%, 54% and 43% respectively, corresponding to PE of 36.2,23.4 and 16.3 times, covering "prudent recommendation" rating for the first time.

Risk tips: business promotion is not up to expectations, systemic risk

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