吉艾科技(300309)三季报点评:人才领衔 AMC业务如期增长

Jiai Science and Technology (300309) three-quarter report comments: talent leads AMC business growth as scheduled

東吳證券 ·  10/25/2018  · Researches

Event: the company announced that the total operating income in the first three quarters of 2018 was 579 million yuan, an increase of 34.97% over the same period last year; the net profit of shareholders belonging to the parent company was 305 million yuan, an increase of 67.05% over the same period last year, corresponding to an EPS of 0.35 yuan per share (the net profit of shareholders belonging to the parent company was forecast in the previous period).

Main points of investment

The profit of 305 million in the third quarter was slightly better than expected, and AMC business grew as scheduled: 1) in the first three quarters, the company's revenue mainly from AMC was + 34.97 to 579 million yuan compared with the same period last year, which was caused by the increase in revenue from AMC restructuring service business and management service business, which together accounted for 85% of AMC plate business. The project gradually released its performance and increased as scheduled. 2) the accounting method of AMC has changed, for example, the accounting of acquisition and disposal asset package has changed from large package accounting to "financial assets measured at fair value and their changes are included in the profits and losses of the current period", we believe that the changed accounting method can more directly reflect the company's performance and help the company to promote the progress of the project. 3) the impairment loss of the company's assets decreased by 102.38% compared with the same period last year, which was due to the increase in the repayment of accounts receivable, which led to a reduction in the loss of bad debts, and the performance was released as scheduled since the transformation of AMC. In addition, Ampu Shengli equity transfer money was recovered ahead of schedule, waiting for the steady growth of the company's performance.

The change of the chairman, the excellent incentive mechanism, and the binding of core talents can be expected: 1) the company previously announced the change of the chairman to Mr. Yao Qing, who serves as the head of the company's AMC business as a top expert in the non-performing assets industry. This post of chairman helps the company to make flexible decisions and improve governance efficiency. 2) the organizational structure of the company's private holding is clear, and the incentive mechanism is effectively implemented (Gao Huaixue, the largest shareholder, transferred 5.06% of its equity to Yao Qing in the first half of 2018) to attract talents to help the company's long-term development. 3) the employee stock ownership plan has been carried out smoothly and efficiently (the company's 2017-2019 employee stock ownership plan is divided into six phases, with a total size of no more than 10% of the total share capital, and the third phase of the plan has been completed by the end of 2018), bound to the interests of the core team, and the AMC business is expected to develop.

The industry in the economic downward cycle has fully benefited, and the private AMC benchmarking ushered in the development opportunities: 1) the company aims to create a high-end integrated service provider of non-performing assets with leading professional technology and systematic services, provide the whole industry chain services, and form its own supporting suppliers to create a sound operation system. 2) the core competitiveness of non-performing assets management lies in evaluation (long-term experience and data accumulation to build a system) and disposal capability (which directly determines the rate of return). The company's AMC team is rich in management, leading the industry in efficiency at the evaluation end and disposal side, and ensuring the company's long-term stable profits. 3) in the current economic downward cycle, the monetary easing environment is fully beneficial to AMC business, and the company has a bright future as a benchmark for private AMC.

Profit forecast and investment rating: AMC business of Jiai Technology relies on experienced management team, leading evaluation and disposal ability, smooth progress of employee stock ownership plan, flexible incentive mechanism to achieve talent binding, the company's medium-and long-term development is worth looking forward to. Considering the business development space and performance growth, the current valuation is at a low level. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2018 and 2019 is 0.48,0.74 yuan respectively, which is optimistic about the development prospect and maintains the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: 1) AMC business is not as expected; 2) competition in the non-performing asset management industry is intensified; 3) traditional petrochemical oil service continues to lose money; 4) refining and chemical business is not as expected.

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