吉艾科技(300309):业绩高增+绑定人才 民营AMC方兴未艾

Jiai Science and Technology (300309): high performance increase + bound talents Private AMC is in the ascendant

東吳證券 ·  09/17/2018  · Researches

The high performance growth continues to be realized, and the traditional private oil service company has achieved remarkable results in transforming AMC: the company used to be a private traditional oil service company. By the end of June 2018, the company's largest shareholder Gao Huaixue (30.17% shareholding) and Xu Bo (7.91% shareholding ratio and mother-son relationship) are the concerted action and the actual controller of the company. Since the company transformed its AMC business in the second half of 2016, the company has achieved remarkable results: 1) the early main oil service business (oil equipment research and development, manufacturing and engineering services such as oil drilling and well logging). In 2015, it was trapped by the low price of crude oil, and the company added new oil refining and chemical business. as the oil service industry remained in the doldrums, the company actively sought new profit growth points in 2016 and established Xinjiang Jichuang Asset Management Co., Ltd. Cut into the AMC business (management, evaluation, acquisition, disposal of special opportunity assets and restructuring of distressed enterprises, debt-to-equity swap services). 2) AMC has made rapid progress and has become the company's main source of income in the first half of 2018 (accounting for 90% of revenue). It has successfully helped the company turn losses into profits (losses of 439 million yuan in 2016, net profits of 212 million yuan in 2017 and 169 million yuan in the first half of 2018, respectively).

AMC positioning high-end integrated service providers, team evaluation & disposal capabilities as the core competitive advantages: 1) the company's goal is to create high-end integrated service providers of non-performing assets with leading professional technology and systematic services, provide the whole industry chain services (the initial bank consultation and evaluation of non-performing assets to the later stage of operation and restructuring, etc.), and form their own supporting suppliers to create a sound operation system. 2) focus on the development of light asset management business (the client range covers any type of non-performing assets investors, including collection, disposal, restructuring, etc., and the profit model is to collect management fees according to scale + performance sharing, with stability + potential high returns). At the same time, we focus on high-quality projects such as restructuring with our own capital investment, pursuing high liquidity and high yield. 3) the core competitiveness of non-performing assets management lies in evaluation (long-term experience and data accumulation to build a system) and disposal ability (directly determine the rate of return). The company's AMC team has more than 10 years of experience in non-performing assets management, leading the industry in efficiency and accuracy at the evaluation end, accelerating the disposal of traditional procedural law on the one hand, and vigorously developing non-procedural law disposal (non-procedural law to speed up the disposal cycle on the other. Significantly improve the rate of return), in addition, the company has a significant advantage in risk control to ensure the company's long-term stable profits.

With excellent private incentive mechanism and binding to core talents, AMC opened a new stage of the company's development: 1) in order to achieve the company's long-term development and effective incentives, Gao Huaixue, the largest shareholder, previously transferred no more than 10% of its shares to General Manager Yao Qing and the employee stock ownership plan, demonstrating AMC's determination to develop. 2) the company's employee stock ownership plan from 2017 to 2019 (divided into six phases with a total size of no more than 10% of the total share capital) has been carried out smoothly and efficiently. At present, the employee stock ownership plan (Phase II + Phase III) held by AMC team employees accounts for 2.73%, and the average shareholding cost is 22.2 yuan per share (lower than the current stock price, with a margin of safety), bound to the core team interests, and the AMC business is expected to develop. 3) with the improvement of overlay fundamentals promoted by the policy in the first half of 2018, the oil and gas scene has increased (oil prices have risen slightly), and coupled with the divestiture of the original loss-making business, the oil service business is expected to turn a loss into a profit this year. In addition, the construction of the main body of the first phase of the refinery has been basically completed, and it is expected that the conditions for commissioning will be reached by the end of the third quarter of this year, and the refining and chemical business is expected to gradually contribute to the performance. We expect that as the AMC incentive mechanism deepens to accelerate performance release and traditional oil service recovery, refineries put into production to contribute profits, the company's fundamentals are expected to continue to improve.

Profit forecast and investment rating: the AMC business of Jiai Technology relies on an experienced management team, leading evaluation and disposal capabilities, building a high-end integrated service provider of non-performing assets, and the company's employee stock ownership plan to promote smooth incentive mechanism and flexible talent binding. In addition, with the recovery of oil prices, the main industry of traditional oil service is expected to warm up and contribute to profits. Considering that AMC has become the core driving force of performance, with the recovery of oil service, the company's medium-and long-term development is worth looking forward to. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2018 and 2019 is 0.87 yuan and 1.34 yuan respectively, which is optimistic about the development prospect and maintains the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: 1) the progress of the AMC business is not as expected; 2) the competition in the non-performing asset management industry is intensified; 3) the traditional petrochemical oil service industry continues to lose money; and 4) the refining and chemical business is not as expected.

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