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三维通信(002115)中报点评:社交广告持续放量 自媒体业务继续高增长

西南證券 ·  Aug 31, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced the 2018 semi-annual report and the performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2018. The 2018 H1 achieved revenue of 1.43 billion yuan (+216.5%), net profit of 69.328 million yuan (+307.8%), net profit of 66.155 million yuan (+2350.8%), and net profit of 66.155 million yuan (+2350.8%), exceeding expectations. The company expects net profit from net profit of 130 to 170 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2018, an increase of 516.7%-706.4% over the previous year. The performance of the Internet advertising business exploded, and the self-media business continued to contribute to EPS. 2018H1, the rapid expansion of the company's performance is mainly due to the merger of Juwang Technology in November 2017, making the comparable base for the same period in '17 different. In terms of revenue, the Internet Premium business achieved revenue of 380 million yuan (-14.6%), and the giant network advertising business achieved revenue of 1.03 billion yuan. From January to May 2017, giant net revenue was 210 million yuan. Assuming 2017 H1 giant net revenue of 250 million yuan, then 2018 H1 giant net revenue achieved a year-on-year increase of 306% (the increase comes from Tencent's social advertising and self-media advertising). In terms of gross profit, 2018H1, Giant Net achieved gross profit of 110 million yuan. As a comparison, from January to May 2017, Giant Net's gross profit was 44.55 million yuan. If we assume that 2017 H1 Giant Net achieved a gross profit of 53.46 million yuan, then in 2018 H1, Giant Net achieved a 110% year-on-year increase in gross profit (the increase mainly comes from self-media advertising). In addition, in 2018H1, the company received fund dividends and achieved investment income of 34.64 million yuan; in July 2018, the company's real estate disposal income was about 65 million yuan, which may be confirmed one after another in Q3 and beyond. The share of self-media advertising in gross profit continues to rise. 2018H1 self-media advertising achieved revenue of 94.77 million yuan, and the figure from January to May 2017 was 23.59 million yuan. Assuming that the 2017 H1 self-media business achieved revenue of 28.31 million yuan, then 2018 H1 self-media business achieved a year-on-year increase of 235% in revenue. In terms of gross margin, the gross margin of the 2018H1 self-media business was 67%, which remained high. In terms of gross profit contribution, 2018H1's self-media business achieved gross profit of 63.7 million yuan, accounting for 57% of Juwang Technology's gross profit, with a slight increase in gross profit. Since 2018, the company has continued to invest more resources in the self-media business, mainly WeChat accounts, and the growth of the company's self-media business is guaranteed. Tencent's social advertising has driven the rapid development of the company's advertising business. 2018H1 is a leader among Tencent's SMB service providers, driving the company to increase its advertising revenue rapidly. Profit forecasts and investment advice. Due to the company's disposal asset income of 65 million in 2018, the sharp increase in Tencent's social advertising volume caused changes in advertising gross margin, so the profit forecast for 19/20 was adjusted. The company's net profit for 2018-2020 is estimated to be 2.46/2.63/318 million yuan, and EPS is 0.44/0.47/0.57 yuan, respectively. We believe that the company is expected to benefit to the greatest extent from this round of WeChat traffic dividends, reach new heights, and maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The risk that the performance of the target of the merger and acquisition falls short of expectations; the risk that WeChat may control corporate traffic; and the risk of strengthening relevant national policies or regulations.

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