1H18 revenue and profit meet expectations
Gujing tribute wine announced 1H18 results: revenue 4.78 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3%, return to the mother net profit of 890 million yuan, an increase of 62.6%, corresponding to EPS 1.77 yuan. Revenue / profit accelerated by 48.5% in the second quarter. 120.6%. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin reached 78.2%, a record high for the same period, and an increase in 3.08ppt compared with the same period last year. The core comes from the explosive growth of raw pulp in sub-high-end years, which promotes the continuous improvement of product structure.
Trend of development
It is expected that the income of raw pulp in the second high-end year is 2.09 billion yuan in 18 years, a substantial increase of 72%, and has accelerated continuously since 2015. According to the recent channel survey, by the end of July, the company has basically completed the task of selling raw pulp in the second high-end year of last year, and the inventory is at a normal level.
In the year of 100 yuan price, the scale of raw pulp for five years and gifts is expected to reach 3.6 billion yuan in 2018, benefiting from the upgrading of county and township consumption in the province to maintain a steady growth of more than 10%. Its gross profit margin as high as 79% fully demonstrates the company's high production efficiency and cost control ability.
The company continues to strengthen its leading position in the province at the price of 85 yuan and 500 yuan, and the province enjoys the continuous upgrading of mass liquor consumption at the full price.
The marketing investment intensity increased again in the second quarter, and the sub-high-end year raw pulp started a new round of national expansion, taking the lead in laying out the surrounding areas of Anhui, of which advertising expenses increased significantly by 83% to 340 million yuan in the first half of the year. The company is significantly increasing the brand promotion of sub-high-end year raw pulp, especially on the national platform, the improvement of brand power will continue to pull the upgrading volume in the province and consolidate the brand foundation for nationalization.
It is relatively certain that the growth rate of revenue / net profit in the next three years will be more than 20%. It is relatively certain that the core comes from the high growth of secondary high-end and its gradual increase in share. It is estimated that the proportion of high-end revenue of ancient wells will reach 35% and 43% in 2019-20. As a result, the gross profit margin continues to rise, while the expense rate benefits from a steady decline in scale effect.
Profit forecast
In 1919, both revenue and sales expenses were raised, but the profit forecast was basically unchanged.
Valuation and suggestion
The company's current share price corresponds to the 18gamble 19-year 24/18xPE, maintaining the recommended rating and maintaining the target price of 127.6 yuan, corresponding to the 18-plus 19-year 38/29xPE, which has 60% room for the current share price.
Risk
If the pace of expansion outside the province is too fast and the investment is too large, the profit may not meet expectations.