Main points of investment
Event: Zhang Haitao, vice president of the company, recently announced that from February to June, Zhang Haitao, vice president of the company, had increased his holdings of 2.7229 million shares through collective bidding, with a cumulative increase of 22.8547 million yuan and an average price of 8.4 yuan per share.
The increase of senior executives shows confidence, and the company's marketing is being reborn. Zhang Haitao served as director, vice president and director of marketing from 2000 to 2014, vice president of Zhongsheng Beijing Control from 2015 to the end of 2017, and returned to the company in January 2018 to be responsible for marketing management again. After the personnel changes from 2017 to 2018, the company's marketing is on the right track again. With a series of personnel adjustments such as superimposing the son of the actual controller as the general manager of the company, the fundamentals of the company are changing positively.
With the launch of new chemiluminescent products and channel expansion, the company's performance is expected to turn a turning point in 2018. In the new product launch: 1) the new generation of high-speed chemiluminescence instrument CI2000 is expected to be officially launched in July, the company currently has nearly 40 chemiluminescence reagent registration certificates, covering tumor markers, hormones, myocardial markers and infectious diseases and other categories, basically can sell and contribute to the performance. Considering that the domestic market size of the chemiluminescence industry is more than 20 billion yuan, the industry growth rate is more than 20%, and domestic accounts for less than 15%, which is a must for IVD enterprises. If the new products stand up to the market test, we believe that chemiluminescence will become an important driving force for the company's performance growth in 2019; 2) CM4000 automatic blood coagulation analyzer will be listed this year, the coagulation industry is known as small chemiluminescence, the market potential is huge, while the company launched microfluidic immune technology platform development, gradually expand the field of POCT. In terms of channel expansion: in 2017, the company invested in the establishment of three diagnostic product sales subsidiaries, Xiamen Liedman, Wuhan Liedman and Jilin Liedman, with a 51% stake in the listed company. New products + channel expansion, we believe that the company's business is continuing to improve, 2018-2019 performance may exceed expectations.
Profit forecast and rating. We estimate that the EPS from 2018 to 2020 will be 0.22,0.27 and 0.34 yuan respectively, and the corresponding stock price will be valued at 28 times, 23 times and 18 times respectively. The company's current younger management, the return of the head of marketing, etc., the company's management is changing actively, taking into account the launch of new products and channel expansion, the company's performance in 2018-2019 may exceed expectations. Give the company an "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: the progress of extension expansion may be lower than expected, the risk of shortage of working capital, the performance of mergers and acquisitions or the risk of not meeting expectations, the resumption of marketing of in vitro diagnostic reagents and the risk of new products being launched or not as expected.
