share_log

金地商置(00535.HK):5月销售提速 土储充沛 业绩释放可期

東吳證券 ·  Jun 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: In May, the company achieved contract sales of about 3.4 billion yuan, a contract sales area of 172,400 square meters, and an average sales price of 1,700 yuan/square meter; from January to May 2018, the company achieved cumulative contract sales of 13.155 billion yuan and a sales area of 586,300 square meters. Reviews were influenced by the pace of marketing, and the sales growth rate in May was corrected for the first time since 2018. The company's contract sales for May were about 3.4 billion yuan, up 25.88% year on year; contract sales area was 172,400 square meters, down 3.9% year on year; average sales price was 1,700 yuan/square meter, up 30.46% year on year. The company's monthly sales volume changed from negative to positive for the first time since 2018. Changes in the marketing project structure have led to an increase in the average sales price. The company's main sales projects are located in non-core areas of Tier 1 and 2 cities, and are relatively limited by price limit policy factors. Judging from the cumulative data, the cumulative contract sales from January to May 2018 were 13.155 billion yuan, down 19.18% year on year; the cumulative contract sales area was 586,300 square meters, down 29.7% year on year. The decline in cumulative sales was mainly due to changes in the company's marketing pace. The company had a lot of sales in the first half of 2017. The sales volume growth rate from January to May 2017 reached 291%. The higher base combined with the lower marketable value in the first half of 2018. The cumulative growth rate declined. It is expected that sales will continue to improve in the later stages as the marketable value increases. Land acquisition is more active, land reserves are abundant, and costs continue to be low. The company continues to focus on first-tier and second-tier popular cities. In 2017, 25 new projects were added in Beijing, Kunming, Kunshan, Jinan, Nanjing, etc., with a cumulative planned construction area of 4.061 million square meters, of which projects located in Beijing and Shanghai accounted for 14%; the total land acquisition amount was 30.993 billion yuan, with an average acquisition cost of 6,600 yuan/square meter, which was 36% of the average sales price at the end of 2017. In 2017, the company's land reserve construction area reached 13.71 million square meters, an increase of 104.29% over the previous year; first-tier cities accounted for 21%, second-tier cities such as Changsha, Hangzhou, Kunming, Kunshan, Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, and Wuhan accounted for 71%, and third-tier cities such as Huai'an, Taicang, and Taiyuan accounted for 8%. The owned property is located in a central location, and the rent is considerable. The investment properties owned by the company are located in the core area of the core city, and the high occupancy rate increases the company's rent scale. At the end of 2017, the occupancy rate of Shenzhen Weixin Software Technology Park Phase 1 and 2, the Beijing Sohu Network Tower, and the Shanghai No. 8 Bridge project all reached 100%. Currently, commercial projects are being developed mainly in five new business districts in cities such as Suzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai. The rental revenue of the commercial real estate sector is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan after completion. Investment advice: Jindi's commercial land acquisition outlook, focusing on core Tier 1 and 2 cities. Land reserves are abundant and costs are low. Currently, the land reserve is close to 14 million square meters. Affected by the marketing structure, the company's sales growth is expected to accelerate. At the same time, the company also owns a large number of high-quality properties in core cities, and also has a large number of construction businesses. Rental income will continue to increase in the future. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.19, 0.26, and 0.32 yuan respectively in 2018-2020, and the corresponding PE is 3.9, 3.0, and 2.3 times, respectively. Risk warning: The sales scale of the industry has declined sharply; interest rates on mortgage loans have risen sharply; real estate policies have been drastically tightened; capital costs for housing enterprises have risen sharply; and Hong Kong stocks are highly volatile.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment