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康尼机电(603111)点评:低估值+高技术壁垒 预期全年业绩高增长

東吳證券 ·  Jun 14, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Recently, the bid evaluation process for the platform gate project of the first phase of the Wuxi Metro Line 3 project has been determined. The winning candidate has been determined. With a price of 65.12 million yuan “higher” than the two, the winning candidate ranked first. The key investment points were the first candidate to win the bid at a price “higher” than that of well-known international manufacturers, demonstrating the core technical strength: the value of platform shielding doors is high, about 34,200,000/piece (2013 price), higher than urban rail exterior doors and EMU interior doors, second only to urban rail interior doors and EMU exterior doors. Each platform has an average of 50 safety doors. In addition to new lines, both lines must be equipped with safety shielding doors every year. We estimate the average annual space of urban rail safety shielding doors in the 2018-2020 urban rail safety shielding market 15-20 billion yuan, which is very impressive The company won the bid of 65.12 million yuan in this single contract, which is expected to increase its annual performance, and the company ranked first among the candidates with a bid price higher than that of internationally renowned brands (64.9 million yuan for Panasonic Electric and 60.48 million yuan for Westinghouse), demonstrating strong international core competitiveness. Rail transit equipment: Benefiting from the boom in urban railways+the increase in the share of the Fuxing Line, it is expected that the high growth rate will continue for the next three years. The urban rail gate system is the company's core product. We estimate that it accounts for 65%-70% of the total revenue of the gate system. The company's market share has continued to be above 50% for more than 10 years. Benefiting from the company's exclusive remote monitoring of the Internet of Things system, it can significantly reduce operating costs for owners, and predict that the potential bid winning rate is expected to continue to be higher than the market share level. In 2017, the country's rail transit added 868.9 kilometers of operating mileage, reaching a new high of +62.5% over the same period. We predict that in 2018-2020, the total additional domestic urban rail mileage will reach more than 3,200 kilometers. From the vehicle equipment side, we estimate the average growth rate of the industry in 2018 to 28%, and the total delivery volume of urban rail vehicles will reach more than 8,000. EMU vehicle door products, for traditional models, the company's internal door systems account for about 70% of the market, and exterior doors (highest value), but in the first batch of Fuxing EMUs, the company's external doors account for 80%. Starting in 2018, domestic trains will be dominated by Fuxing, which is conducive to a significant increase in the company's performance. The company achieved sales of 173 trains throughout 2017, and we estimate that it will reach more than 230 sets in 2018. In addition, urban rail transit vehicles (including door systems) need to be repaired for 5 years or 600,000 kilometers, and overhauled for 10 years or 1.2 million kilometers. Starting in 2018, grade 4-5 advanced EMU repairs will gradually be scaled up. In 2017, the company's maintenance parts business revenue reached 250 million yuan, +80.55% over the same period, achieving rapid growth. The company's performance is expected to increase significantly in the future with the dual catalysts of the rise of post-urban rail+EMU services. Consumer electronics: A leader in surface treatment technology, expanding from consumer electronics to various fields such as medical devices, cosmetics, and lithium batteries. The rail transit industry is cyclical. In order to enhance the company's ability to resist cycles, the company spent 3.4 billion dollars to complete the wholly-owned acquisition of Guangdong Longxin Technology in December 2017. Longxin Technology focuses on the surface treatment business of consumer electronics products. Its customers cover OPPO, VIVO, Huawei, Xiaomi, Samsung, LG and many other famous domestic and foreign consumer electronics manufacturers. In 2017, Long Xin achieved revenue of 1,109 billion yuan, or +8.94% year-on-year, accounting for 45.9% of Coney's total revenue, net profit of 261 million yuan, +45.0% year-on-year, and successfully completed the promised results during the major asset restructuring period. Currently, mobile phone cases are mainly made of metal, and in view of the “2020 5G commercial+wireless charging” industry trend, ceramic+glass materials are expected to gradually penetrate the high-end market, and plastic case composites will seize the middle and lower end markets. Longxin Technology has extensive technical reserves for special complex processes. It has mastered core technical reserves such as metal ceramization and composite vitrification, which is highly in line with industry trends. In addition, the company is also actively expanding non-consumer electronics surface treatment businesses such as health care products and cosmetic packaging, and has achieved mass production and sales since 2018. Long Xin's performance promises to deduct non-net profit of not less than 23,800, 30,800, and 387.66 million yuan in 2017-2019. It is expected that there will be little pressure to reach the promise. New energy vehicle parts: The industry continues to be booming, and the company's new products are expected to be released. From January to May 2018, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 280,000 units, an increase of 140% year on year, maintaining high growth. The new energy bus door system products (electric cellar doors) independently developed by the company adapt to the development trend of electrification, environmental protection, energy saving, intelligence and humanization of new energy vehicles in the country. In 2017, more than 2,000 new orders were placed. Customers include Suzhou Jinlong, Nanjing Jinlong, Suzhou Haige, BYD, and Zhuhai Yinlong. The main precision forged products of traditional auto parts manufactured and produced by the company include parts such as differential shafts, drive shafts, safety systems, automobile transmissions, etc., which have obtained BMW's first-class supplier qualification and have not yet been mass-produced. Profit forecast and investment rating: Rail transit sector: the market share of the company's urban rail and Fuxing EMU is expected to increase rapidly, and the rise of the service market will further catalyze performance; new energy vehicles: the industry is growing rapidly, and products such as the company's electric Celamen acquire high-end core customers; Consumer electronics sector: Longxin Technology acquired by the company has strong technical reserves, closely following the major trends of 5G and wireless charging, and products are beginning to expand into emerging fields such as lithium batteries, cosmetics, and medical devices. Driven by rail transport+consumer electronics+new energy business, it is predicted that the company's EPS for 2018-2020 will be 0.75/0.90/1.11 yuan, corresponding to PE14/12/9X, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Railway investment and EMU tenders fall short of expectations, domestic substitution progress falls short of expectations, downstream 3C smart products fall short of expectations, the development of the company's new energy business falls short of expectations, price cuts for Fuxing products and rising raw material prices

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