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国创高新(002377)首次覆盖报告:收购Q房网进军房产经纪O2O 非公发拓展长租业务

Guochuang Hi-Tech (002377) First Coverage Report: Acquisition of Q Housing Network to Enter Real Estate Broker O2O Non-Public to Expand Long-Term Rental Business

國盛證券 ·  May 16, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  It is proposed to increase non-public offerings by 1.3 billion dollars to consolidate real estate brokerage and expand long-term rental business. On May 2, the company announced a plan for a non-public stock offering. It plans to raise no more than 130,158 million yuan in capital for long-term rental apartment construction+marketing network construction+O2O system construction to further improve the real estate agency business layout, extend the industrial chain, cultivate new business growth points, and promote the monetization of online traffic.

Shenzhen Cloud House's core advantages: back-end technology supports business development and actively lays out and regulates offline business. In 2017, the company acquired Shenzhen Yunfang at a transaction price of 3.8 billion yuan. Shenzhen Yunfang promised that the net profit for 2016-2019 would not be less than 24250, 25750, 32250, and 365 million yuan. The performance promises for 2016 and 17 have all been completed. The company's main revenue in 2017 was 3.886 billion yuan, and realized non-net profit of 283 million yuan after deduction. The company's competitive advantage: (1) It has a relatively complete offline business system. By the end of 2017, Q Housing Network had 1,200 floors and 25,000 agents, ranking first in the Shenzhen region. South China and East China were leading the way and actively expanding across the country. (2) The company has strong back-end technology, including real estate dictionaries and housing price evaluation systems, to provide strong support for offline business.

Real estate agency industry: The real estate market has entered the stock era, and the real estate brokerage business has a lot of room for improvement. China's second-hand housing market is in the early stages of development. There is strong room for development, and the role of the intermediary industry will continue to show.

Looking at the whole country, first-tier cities have taken the lead in entering the second-hand housing era. The volume of second-hand housing transactions has already surpassed that of new housing transactions, and the market has already entered the stock era. Currently, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in China is less than 40%, and there is still plenty of room for the British and American countries to account for more than 80%. As urbanization gradually progresses, the potential of the downtown stock housing market is considerable. Second-hand housing will gradually become the dominant force in market transactions, and real estate brokerage firms with professional management capabilities and accurate data analysis capabilities will occupy a high ground in the fierce real estate market.

The company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2018-2020 is estimated to be 340 million/406 million/468 million yuan respectively. Excluding the impact of the diluted share capital after non-public issuance, the 18-20 EPS was 0.37/0.44/0.51 yuan respectively, and the 18-20 PE corresponding to the current stock price was 20/17/15 times, respectively. First coverage, a purchase rating was given, and the target price was 9.8 yuan.

Risk warning: the risk of changes in real estate policies; the risk that business integration is not progressing smoothly; the risk that the non-public offering plan will not progress smoothly.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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