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宁波港(601018)年报点评:贸易复苏吞吐量大增 17利润增长16.43%

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 2, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Events/news: The company released its 2017 annual report, achieving full-year operating income of 18.183 billion yuan, an increase of 11.38% over the previous year; net profit of 2,677 billion yuan, an increase of 16.43% over the previous year; and finally achieved basic earnings per share of 0.20 yuan, an increase of 17.65% over the previous year; the weighted average ROE was 7.51%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points over the previous year. The performance was basically in line with expectations. The economic recovery has boosted the port, with annual cargo throughput of 7.2 billion tons. In the context of global economic recovery, imports and exports improved beyond expectations. Cargo throughput at major ports increased 6.4% year on year, container throughput increased 8.3% year on year, and the growth rate increased sharply. Under the general environment, the company completed cargo throughput of 7.2 billion tons, an increase of 8.4% over the previous year; the handling volume of major types of goods all increased. Among them, the relatively large amounts of ore, coal and crude oil handled were 132 million tons, 43.58 million tons, and 71.96 million tons, with increases of 14.1%, 10.4% and 3.7%; liquefied products and grain were 9.8 million tons and 6.55 million tons, respectively, up 8% and 5.1% from the previous year. Container throughput increased by 13.8%, and the three major economic growth highlights. The company has vigorously expanded its container business, with an annual throughput of 25.97 million boxes, an increase of 13.8% over the previous year, achieving the fourth largest container business volume in the world and the highest growth rate among the world's top five ports. Water transfer, sea-rail intermodal transport, and domestic trade boxes have become new economic growth points. 6.63 million containers of water were transferred throughout the year, an increase of 18.3% over the previous year; 410,000 boxes of sea-rail intermodal transport, an increase of 59.9% over the previous year; and 3 million TEUs for domestic trade, an increase of 16.9% over the previous year. The province's port integration pattern has been formed, and substantial progress has been made in the integration of port anchorages. After the substantial integration of Ningbo Zhoushan Port was completed, the province's port integration process progressed steadily. It has formed a “integrated, two-wing, multi-connected” port development pattern with Ningbo Zhoushan Port as the main body, southeast Zhejiang coastal port and Hangzhou Bay port around northern Zhejiang as two wings, and joint development of Yiwu Lu Port and other inland river ports. The integration of anchorage resources in various port areas is progressing steadily. Beilun No. 1 Container Terminal Co., Ltd. was formally established and operated, and the Meishan Port Area integration plan has basically been completed, which is conducive to the orderly development of the company's business. Some key projects have come into effect, and foreign investment continues to increase. A total of 3.73 billion yuan was invested in the construction of the project in 2017, including completion and inspection of the Murang Lake ore transfer terminal project, the Beilun Port Area multi-purpose terminal renovation project, Meishan Ro-Ro and grocery terminal projects; the completion of the Meishan 200,000 ton container entry channel project and the Beilun General Berth Container Handling Station expansion project; and the acquisition of shares in Jiashan and Baicong completed the actual holding of Taicang Phase I and Phase II. Projects such as the acquisition of shares in Zhoushan Shihua and Nanjing Mingzhou Terminal are progressing in an orderly manner, and domestic cooperation projects such as Ma Steel Logistics are progressing smoothly. Signed a sister port memorandum of understanding with Indonesian IPC. Through engineering construction and foreign investment, the company's competitiveness and international influence have increased rapidly. Raise the profit forecast and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Considering that the company's performance has maintained a good development trend, we have raised our 18/19 profit forecast and added a 20-year forecast. We expect the company's net profit from 2018 to 2020 to be 2,946 billion yuan, 32.26 billion yuan, and 3,533 billion yuan respectively (the original 18/19 forecast was 2,890 billion yuan and 3.176 billion yuan), and the corresponding current stock price PE was 24 times, 22 times, and 20 times, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The escalation of the trade war triggered a downturn in import and export trade, leading to a decline in port throughput.

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