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麦达数字(002137)点评:投资收益贡献Q1高增长 产投研推进盘活资金效率

廣證恆生 ·  Mar 21, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company released a performance forecast for the first quarter of 2018, showing that the company's net profit for the first quarter of 2018 is expected to reach 245.94-32.745,800 yuan, an increase of 50%-100% over the same period last year. The core view is that industrial investment has gradually entered a harvest period, contributing to high Q1 performance growth: since 2015, the company has successively invested in big data, enterprise Internet, intelligent manufacturing, etc., to win marketing, six degrees of peace, acquisition of Beijing Microlianda, investment in Shanghai Fushu Technology, etc., and its industrial merger and acquisition funds are also actively deployed in related fields. Entering 2018, some of the targets of the initial investment layout gradually realized returns, leading to a rapid increase in net profit in Q1. Previously, the company's 2017 performance report showed a 16.83% increase in operating income. Due to the impact of the base effect in 2016 (the sale of 100% of the shares of the subsidiary Yuantong Incubation confirmed investment income of 108 million yuan in 2016), net profit for the mother fell 53.02% year on year, achieving net profit of 70.46 million yuan and net profit after deducting a 194.13% increase in net profit after deducting non-return to the mother. The company's overall endogenous business has maintained impressive growth, and the continued promotion of the investment sector is expected to revitalize on-account cash assets (the amount of cash on the account of the 2017Q3 company reached 560 million yuan, mainly for the purchase of 2.4%-4.45% of capital protection products), bringing considerable investment income; at the same time, it helps promote the company's executive team and investment team to actively adapt and explore business models in emerging fields such as the enterprise Internet, empowering and training for enterprise transformation. Clarify the enterprise Internet+intelligent manufacturing strategy, and deepen the integration of business with industrial investment and research: the company has clarified that it is deeply involved in the field of enterprise Internet and intelligent manufacturing: it has successively acquired three digital marketing companies including Shunwei, invests in leading SaaS companies in the consumer goods industry and SCRM segment, and invests in leading SaaS companies in the consumer goods industry and the SCRM segment respectively, and invests in six degrees and Beijing Maida (formerly “Weilianda”), a major domestic value-added distributor, thus successfully introducing the former global vice president of Oracle, Gao Liqiang's team with extensive management and technical experience in computer software to promote SaaS business development; At the same time, traditional manufacturing business has been optimized and positioned to provide customers with smart hardware services. Currently, it has reached a business cooperation with Feimi, one of the Xiaomi ecosystems, to supply them with smart product manufacturing services. The intelligent manufacturing business is committed to large-scale and business volume, contributing to steady growth in performance; the emerging business sector is actively transforming into enterprise Internet services, contributing to medium- to long-term performance growth engines. In 2017, the company issued a restricted equity incentive plan. A total of 44 core executives from the digital marketing sector participated, laying the foundation for the growth of the company's performance in the digital marketing sector after the expiration of the gamble (it was agreed that the net profit growth rate of the three companies in 2018 would not be less than 10% based on the 2017 performance, providing impetus for the growth in mergers and acquisitions of its subsidiaries after the expiration of gambling). At the same time, the company's actual controllers have not reduced their holdings since the transformation in 2015, and continued to increase their holdings by 8.42 yuan/share by about 0.41% during the period from September to November 2017. Show confidence in the company's platform. Profit forecast and valuation: Assuming that the company's industrial investment continues to advance and the capital revitalization effect gradually releases investment income, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.71/1.22/169 million yuan in 2017-2019, corresponding EPS is: 0.12/0.21/0.29 yuan/share; corresponding current stock price valuations are: 92.36/54.07/37.93 × PE. Considering that it has recently been boosted by the “unicorn” concept, etc., the company has increased significantly in the short term, giving it a neutral rating. Risk warning: The company's enterprise-grade SaaS is not progressing smoothly, industry growth is slowing down, and goodwill risks.

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