Investment logic
Automotive air-conditioning compressor leader, production and marketing first in China, the rise of independent brands to drive the development of enterprises, the acquisition of air-conditioning international cut into the field of thermal management system, the layout of new energy vehicle thermal management. The company is the world's largest manufacturer of scroll compressors, the largest domestic manufacturer of independent-brand swashplate compressors, and the compressor accounts for more than 60% of the market share of independent-brand passenger cars; the acquisition of air-conditioning international has the ability to integrate thermal management systems and coordinate the development of the global market.
With the outbreak of thermal management of new energy vehicles, battery thermal management, heat pump and electric compressor work together. New energy vehicle thermal management system bike value 5000 yuan, the new market more than 10 billion; the company has both system integration capacity and local advantages, determined to supply NIO Inc. and CATL; heat pump system trend is obvious, customized development for the whole vehicle plant; electric compressor leader, into the German Volkswagen, BYD supply system.
Traditional car thermal management and compressor complementary, customer sharing, collaborative development. Core customers include GM, Ford, Volkswagen, Chrysler, Great Wall, SAIC and so on. GM has long contributed about 50% of its sales revenue to Air conditioning International, and has been developing new customer resources to supply NIO Inc. with air conditioning systems from 2018.
With the steady growth of inclined plate compressor business and the obvious trend of independent replacement, it has become an European supplier to Volkswagen. There are 26 domestic supporting enterprises with more than 40 supporting models, including joint ventures such as Dongfeng Nissan, FAW-Volkswagen, Ford Jiangling, etc., and has been identified as a supplier of swashplate compressors in Europe. It is expected to start supplying more than 200000 sets per year in 2019.
Scroll compressors benefit from the outbreak of small-displacement passenger cars, supplying PSA Europe and expanding the market. With more than 5 million sets of scroll compressor mass production capacity, a cumulative production of 30 million scroll compressors; identified as the PSA European fixed displacement compressor supplier, Morocco built a factory, 2018 began to supply, is expected to be more than 200000 sets per year; domestic afterloading annual market of about 4 million sets, the global compressor afterloading market up to 10 million, the company's after-sales market to the United States-based, annual export volume of more than 800000 sets.
Investment suggestion
The company is the leader of automotive air conditioning compressors and has an absolute competitive advantage in the business of swashplate, scroll and electric scroll compressors; at the same time, the new energy thermal management business revolves around international air conditioners, which has system development and production capacity. We estimate that the company's net profit from 2017 to 2019 is 396 million, 543 million and 600 million, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.13,0.17,0.19 yuan respectively. The 18-year PE is 23x. For the first time, the company was given an overweight rating.
Risk hint
The expansion of foreign market and aftermarket is not as expected; the competition of compressor business is intensified; the cost of raw materials fluctuates; the sales of independent-brand passenger cars and new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; the pressure of the lifting of restrictions on stock prices
