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银江股份(300020)公告点评:一季报超预期 奠定全年发展基调

華泰證券 ·  Feb 8, 2018 03:00  · Researches

Profit for the first quarter of 2018 was 50,3579 million yuan to 57.023 million yuan. The performance exceeded our expectations. Yinjiang Co., Ltd. issued a performance forecast on February 7. It is estimated that the profit for the first quarter of 2018 will be 50,3579 million yuan to 57.073 million yuan, up 50%-70% from the previous year. The impact of non-recurring profit and loss on net profit is expected to be 1 million yuan to 3 million yuan, exceeding our expectations. We are optimistic that the company's business model will be further replicated and promoted after gradual maturity, that the business will achieve rapid growth, and maintain the company's “increase in holdings” rating. The business model is gradually maturing, promoting the rapid development of smart city business The company's business model gradually matures after early exploration, and promotes a rapid increase in orders in various business areas of the company, thus achieving rapid growth in performance: Judging from the company's 2017 three-quarter report, the company added a total of 767 million yuan in orders in the first three quarters of 2017, including 357 million yuan in smart city business, 344 million yuan in smart transportation, and 66.09 million yuan in smart medical business. In addition, the company has successively signed strategic cooperation agreements with 33 local governments and established strategic general contracting partnerships. Adequate on-hand orders ensure that the company's operations maintain a good trend and help achieve rapid revenue and profit growth in 2018. A framework cooperation agreement was signed with Alibaba Cloud to achieve leapfrog cooperation between the two parties. On November 16, 2017, Yinjiang Co., Ltd. signed a “Framework Cooperation Agreement” with Alibaba Cloud to establish a strategic partnership. The two sides will cooperate closely in various fields in the fields of smart transportation and urban brain, share high-quality resources in their respective fields, deeply integrate products and solutions, jointly expand the product market, and achieve leapfrog cooperation between the two sides. For Yinjiang, this cooperation will effectively strengthen the company's technical strength, thereby further improving the company's overall solutions in the field of smart cities, especially smart transportation, etc., enhancing the company's competitiveness and influence in the fields of smart city design and operation, enhancing order acquisition capabilities, and helping the business to advance further rapidly. Further build a smart city industry platform and enhance the comprehensive construction and operation capabilities of smart cities. Yinjiang actively uses capital advantages to build a smart city industry platform, enhance the comprehensive construction and operation capabilities of smart cities, and create new business growth points. The company's wholly-owned subsidiary participated in the company Medical Network on January 26, 2018, and entered the new third board on January 26, 2018, further enriching the capital market layout and enhancing the company's competitive advantage in the Internet medical field. Furthermore, the company is fully optimistic about the development prospects of the education information technology industry in the smart city field. In order to promote the development of the company's smart education business, the company invested 80,1888 million yuan in the form of its own capital to transfer 8.91% of Wanpeng Education's shares on November 21, 2017, to promote the company's strategic development and industrial upgrading, and enhance the company's business integrity and integration in the smart city field. Maintaining an increase in holdings rating, considering that some projects under construction in 2017 did not meet the revenue recognition conditions, we slightly lowered the company's profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit from 2017 to 2019 to be 200 million yuan, 265 million yuan, and 354 million yuan to 170 million yuan, 253 million yuan, and 304 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 36 times, 24 times and 20 times, respectively, maintaining the increase rating. Previously, systemic risks led to a decline in sector valuation levels. Considering that the average PE valuation of comparable companies in 2018 was 28 times, giving a target PE valuation of 27 times to 30 times in 2018, the target PE valuation was adjusted to 10.53 yuan to 11.7 yuan. Risk warning: The progress of the PPP model is not as good as expected; the progress of new business is not as good as expected; the repayment progress of government projects falls short of expectations; and the integration effect of extended investment falls short of expectations.

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