Main points of investment:
With the acceleration of the national big data strategy, the Intelligent Network Alliance has attacked again. During the second collective study of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 9, Xi Jinping stressed the importance of implementing the national big data strategy to speed up the construction of digital China. With the strong support of the state, Smart Internet is expected to usher in rapid development. At present, vehicle networking is in the stage of rapid penetration of T-BOX hardware (T-BOX connects to the lowest CAN bus of the car, which can obtain all the data of vehicle operation). T-BOX will be one of the best entrances for vehicle networking services (UBI car insurance, personalized service, iterative algorithm of intelligent driving decision-making layer). As the source of intelligent network connection, big data is expected to take the lead in the outbreak. Superimposed 5G is expected to be commercially available on a large scale ahead of time, and the characteristics of high reliability and ultra-low delay accelerate the large-scale application of vehicle networking, which will be a killer application scenario of 5G.
The company is the leader of T-BOX products for new energy vehicles (with a domestic market share of nearly 40%), and the networking business of boosters will be fully developed. The company's holding subsidiary, Intel T-BOX, has nearly 40% of the domestic market share (130000 units were sold in the first half of this year). This year, downstream customers have fully covered from high-end new energy vehicles to high -, middle-and low-end new energy vehicles. Hardware sales + software platform construction (Tmurbox + new energy vehicle national three-level monitoring system platform) to maintain a high gross profit margin. The company's plan to increase 1.46 billion yuan (to expand the production capacity of T-BOX and expand the scale of smart driving operation) has been approved by the CSRC. After the completion of the investment project, it is expected to form an intelligent network connected automobile industry chain with InTester hardware and software products and nine five-year smart driving operation services as the core, providing customers with one-stop hardware products and software services. The company will take advantage of the development opportunities of new energy vehicles to achieve its own advantages and business scale expansion.
Profit forecast and investment rating: after considering the completion of the implementation of the fixed increase and the comprehensive listing of InTester in 2018, the net profit of Xingmin Zhitong from 2018 to 2020 is expected to be 159 million yuan, 209 million yuan and 525 million yuan respectively, and the three-year CAGR is nearly 81%. The company is expected to grow at a high rate. Based on the principle of prudence, when the non-public offering is not finally completed, regardless of the dilution of the share capital and the factors affecting the performance, regardless of the factors affecting the performance of the 49% equity of Inteste in 2018, it is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2017 and 2019 will be 0.15, 0.23 and 0.33 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be times that of 65-43-30. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the penetration rate of T-box products is lower than expected; the development progress of car networking is lower than expected, the non-public offering cannot be successfully completed, and the remaining 49% of Intel's equity acquisition progress is lower than expected.