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锦富技术(300128):光伏业务再下一城 新老业务齐头并进开创新局面

申萬宏源研究 ·  Sep 4, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Company announcement: The company signed a “Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement” with the People's Government of Fengtai County, Anhui. The two sides intend to cooperate in the development and demonstration of photovoltaic power generation projects, products, technology and management. The Fengtai County Government supports the company to invest in the construction of an efficient module photovoltaic industry project in the local area through complementary advantages. The project is expected to produce a total of 1.5 GW of modules within 3-5 years, with an output value of about 4 billion yuan. The company actively seizes opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, and the extension of the photovoltaic industry chain has borne fruit. The company is currently in a period of upgrading and transformation of its traditional business. Facing the recent opportunities for the rapid development of the domestic photovoltaic business, the company's new management hopes to use the company's capital and platform advantages to expand and deepen the company's original solar photovoltaic trading business in the form of asset-light operations, using the information and resource advantages of the newly acquired Anhui Zhonglujing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. team to increase the company's profit growth point. Earlier, on August 22, the company announced the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement involving photovoltaic products with an annual demand of about 1.58 billion yuan. The company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Fengtai County People's Government, which is of great significance to the extension of the company's photovoltaic business industry chain. If the agreement can be successfully advanced and implemented, the company's photovoltaic industry chain will extend from the current outsourced ingots, outsourced slicing, and outsourced battery processing to module production and processing and construction of photovoltaic power plants. The signing of this cooperation agreement is expected to significantly increase the company's performance. The project signed this time is expected to produce the components required for a 1.5 GW photovoltaic power plant. The scale of the project is equivalent to 4.3% of the new PV installed capacity (34.54 GW) last year. Currently, the production capacity of 1 GW photovoltaic power generation involves an investment of about 7-8 billion dollars, and the actual investment scale involved in this project is 10-12 billion dollars. Based on the order volume of 4 billion PV modules, we conservatively estimate that the net interest rate is about 5-10% (median value of 7.5%). Assuming that confirmation is completed in 5 years, it will bring a total net profit of 300 million yuan to listed companies, with an average annual average of 60 million yuan (depending on implementation progress). After the management and board of directors were changed, and with employee shareholding incentives, the company's IoT business entered commercial implementation, and the original business is being revitalized. Since the company's board of directors and executive team had a major blood exchange in June of this year and the employee stock ownership plan was launched, the company's various businesses have made phased progress, and the overall situation has taken on a new look. Currently, pre-sales of the company's IoT products have begun, and they are expected to be fully launched in September. The “Computing Cloud Smart Home Overall Solution” developed by the company's shareholding company Beijing Computing Cloud mainly consists of smart weak current boxes (micro network data terminals), smart wireless APs, and enterprise-grade hard drives of various specifications. It is an IoT product that the company is focusing on building. The launch of the new product will become a milestone in the commercial implementation of the company's IoT business. At the same time, the old business sector is also gradually breaking out of its trough, and new and old businesses are going hand in hand, which is expected to bring about rapid growth in performance. Raise profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. The company's performance has improved sequentially for three consecutive quarters, and it is expected that it will gradually release performance in the second half of '17. We have long been optimistic about the company's IoT layout and the recovery in the old business sector. Due to the uncertain performance confirmation ratio of the PV sector this year, the profit forecast for 17 will not be adjusted, and the profit forecast for 18-19 will be raised. EPS for 17-19 is expected to be 0.10/0.25/0.38 yuan (the original forecast value was 0.10/0.19/0.32 yuan), and the corresponding PE is 101/40/27 times. Risk warning: The implementation of the strategic cooperation agreement signed this time is uncertain, the PV industry policy adjustments are uncertain, the risk of outward processing of photovoltaic products, and the launch of new IoT products falls short of expectations.

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