Comments on the semi-annual report of Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway (600269): deducting the growth of non-net profit by 17.6% is optimistic that the low PB valuation will continue to be repaired.

華創證券 · Aug 9, 2017 00:00 · Researches

　　主要观点

　　1.公司发布2017 半年报，扣非后增长17.6%

　　财务数据：公司实现营收21.59 亿，同比减少5.90%，实现归母净利润5.90 亿，同比减少20.22%，扣非净利润3.43 亿，同比增长17.57%，基本每股收益0.25 元。

　　非经常性损益：今年收到2.78 亿政府补助，去年因转让国盛证券股权获得收益5.47 亿元。

　　2016 年上半年，公司转让国盛证券股权实现投资收益5.47 亿元，今年1 月公司收到江西省财政厅拨付的财政支持款2.78 亿元。

　　2.受分流影响，通行费收入下降，但毛利率提升报告期内，公司营收下滑5.90%，成本下降11.85%，毛利率由39.11%升至42.48%。

　　1）受分流影响，高速公路通行费收入同比小幅下滑。

　　1-6 月，公司通行费收入同比下降2.18%至14.71 亿元，占总收入的68%。毛利率57.22%，比上年同期增长4.42 个百分点。

　　其中，昌九高速、昌泰高速、九景高速、昌樟高速分别实现收入3.72、3.26、3.16 及2.92 亿元，合计占通行费收入比的93.9%，同比增速分别为下滑8.74%、增长15.23%、增长9.47%及下滑12.99%。

　　受分流影响，昌樟、昌九高速收入下降：昌樟高速通行费收入下降主要是受东昌高速建成通车分流的影响。今年昌九大道（2016 年6 月通车）和东昌高速（2017 年1 月通车）对公司现有高速公路（昌樟高速、昌九高速）的影响基本都已体现。

　　受路网完善影响，九景、昌泰收入增长：杭新景高速公路衢州段的通车致九景高速通行服务收入增长；路网完善使跨省来往车辆增加，致昌泰通行服务收入显著增长。

　　核心路产毛利率多数提升。上述4 条核心路产中，除了昌樟高速毛利率同比降低了1.25 个百分点至60.06%外，其余高速毛利率均上升（昌九、九景、昌泰分别提升3.07、4.85 及1.96 个百分点。

　　2）多元业务：油品销售略有增长，工程收入大幅减少。

　　上半年成品油销售实现收入4.11 亿，同比增长3.79%，主要由于上半年成品油平均售价同比增长。

　　工程业务实现收入2.30 亿，同比减少23.26%，主要由于上半年公司高速公路建设速度减缓，工程项目减少所致。

　　3.资本开支渐入尾声，多元资产贡献支撑及未来转型基础1）公司未来资本开支渐入尾声。昌九高速改扩建将于2018 年建成通车，或为未来几年内最后一个大型项目。昌樟高速改扩建通车后政府给予延长14 年9 个月收费年限的政策对昌九修成通车后亦有参考意义。

　　2）公司持有金融资产24.74 亿元：公司持有国盛金控（5.52%）、湘邮科技（4.26%）以及信达地产（6.58%）股权，市价20.37 亿（2017/8/8）。

　　此外公司以4.37 亿元成为恒邦保险并列第一大股东（持有20%股权）。

　　3）丰富的土地储备：公司拥有庐山西海风景区500 亩土地，以及铜鼓县温泉小镇3000 亩规划用地。以3000 元/平方米保守测算，若根据规划面积，全部办好手续后潜在的价值约70 亿元。

　　公司土地储备具有丰富的旅游价值：铜鼓天然氧吧+温泉资源，且为红色旅游区；庐山西海临近庐山风景区，为生态旅游区；土地项目或为公司未来开发养老及旅游资产做储备。

　　金融与地产项目合计潜在价值95 亿，贡献市值支撑及未来转型基础。

　　4.投资建议：估值仍有修复空间，维持“强推”评级1）我们认为目前高速公路或处于盈利能力与估值双升期。

　　a）经济回暖周期，车流量增长，资产盈利能力得到提升；b）从政策角度，或处于边际转暖时

　　2）我们在《图说高速板块PB 与GDP 增速：或处于基本面与政策双转暖期——高速公路行业系列研究（一）》中指出，高速公路公司PB 变化与当地GDP 增速的趋势有相关性，推荐低PB、PB 趋势尚未跟随当地GDP 增速、未来或有修复空间的标的包括赣粤高速（PB 0.96）。

　　3）预计公司2017-19 年EPS 分别为0.37、0.39 及0.45 元，对应PE分别为15.4、14.8 及12.8 倍。高速公路行业平均PB1.5 倍，PE16 倍，公司是唯一破净个股，鉴于未来资本开支渐入尾声，多元资产贡献强支撑及未来转型基础，激励计划将管理层、骨干与公司长期利益相结合，建立长效机制，有望释放经营活力，维持“强推”评级。

　　5.风险提示：

　　经济回暖不及预期、土地开发项目进展不及预期。

Main viewpoints

1. The company released its semi-annual report for 2017, which increased by 17.6% after deducting non-profit.

Financial data: the company achieved revenue of 2.159 billion, a decrease of 5.90% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 590 million, a decrease of 20.22% over the same period last year, deducting 343 million of non-net profit, an increase of 17.57% over the same period last year, and basic earnings per share of 0.25 yuan.

Non-recurrent profit and loss: received 278 million government subsidies this year, and earned 547 million yuan from the transfer of shares in Guosheng Securities last year.

In the first half of 2016, the company achieved an investment income of 547 million yuan from the transfer of shares in Guosheng Securities, and in January this year, the company received 278 million yuan in financial support from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Finance.

two。 Affected by the diversion, toll revenue decreased, but during the reporting period of the increase in gross profit margin, the company's revenue fell by 5.90%, costs decreased by 11.85%, and gross profit margin rose from 39.11% to 42.48%.

1) affected by diversion, highway toll revenue decreased slightly compared with the same period last year.

From January to June, the company's toll revenue fell 2.18% year-on-year to 1.471 billion yuan, accounting for 68% of total revenue. The gross profit margin was 57.22%, an increase of 4.42 percentage points over the same period last year.

Among them, Changjiu Expressway, Changtai Expressway, Jiujing Expressway and Changzhang Expressway realized income of 3.72,3.26,3.16 and 292 million yuan respectively, accounting for 93.9% of the toll income ratio, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.74%, 15.23%, 9.47% and 12.99%, respectively.

Affected by the diversion, the income of Changzhang and Changjiu Expressway decreased: the decline of toll income of Changzhang Expressway is mainly affected by the traffic diversion of Dongchang Expressway. This year, Changjiu Avenue (opened in June 2016) and Dongchang Expressway (opened in January 2017) have basically reflected the impact on the company's existing expressways (Changzhang Expressway and Changjiu Expressway).

Affected by the improvement of the road network, the income of Jiujing and Changtai increased: the opening of the Quzhou section of Hangzhou-Xinjing Expressway led to the growth of Jiujing Expressway service income; the improvement of the road network increased the number of cross-provincial traffic, and the revenue of Zhi Changtai traffic service increased significantly.

Most of the gross profit margins of core road products have increased. Among the above four core road production, except that the gross profit margin of Changzhang highway decreased by 1.25% to 60.06% compared with the same period last year, the other high-speed gross profit margin increased (Changjiu, Jiujing, Changtai increased by 3.07%, 4.85% and 1.96% respectively.

2) Diversified business: the sales of oil products increased slightly and the project revenue decreased significantly.

Revenue from oil products sales in the first half of the year reached 411 million, an increase of 3.79 percent over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in the average selling price of oil products in the first half of the year.

The revenue of the engineering business reached 230 million, a decrease of 23.26% over the same period last year, mainly due to the slowdown of the company's highway construction and the reduction of engineering projects in the first half of the year.

3. Capital expenditure is coming to an end, multiple assets contribution support and the basis of future transformation. 1) the company's future capital expenditure is coming to an end. The reconstruction and expansion of Changjiu Expressway will be completed and opened to traffic in 2018, which may be the last large-scale project in the next few years. The government's policy of extending the toll life of 14 years and 9 months after the renovation and expansion of Changzhang Expressway is also of reference significance to Changjiu after it is completed and opened to traffic.

2) the company holds 2.474 billion yuan in financial assets: the company holds shares in Guosheng Financial Holdings (5.52%), Xiangyou Technology (4.26%) and Cinda Real Estate (6.58%), with a market price of 2.037 billion (2017-8-8).

In addition, the company has become the largest shareholder of Hengbang Insurance with 437 million yuan (20% equity).

3) rich land reserve: the company owns 500mu of land in Lushan Xihai Scenic spot and 3000 mu of planned land in Tonggu County Hot Spring Town. According to the conservative estimate of 3000 yuan per square meter, according to the planned area, the potential value after completing the formalities is about 7 billion yuan.

The company's land reserve has rich tourism value: Tonggu natural oxygen bar + hot spring resources, and is a red tourism area; the West Sea of Lushan Mountain is close to Lushan Scenic area, which is an eco-tourism area; land projects or reserves for the company's future development of pension and tourism assets.

Financial and real estate projects have a total potential value of 9.5 billion, contributing to market capitalization support and the basis of future transformation.

4. Investment advice: valuation still has room to repair, maintain the "push" rating 1) We believe that the current highway may be in a period of both profitability and valuation.

A) the economic recovery cycle, the growth of traffic flow and the improvement of asset profitability; b) from a policy point of view, or when it is in a marginal turn

2) in "illustrating the growth rate of PB and GDP in the high-speed plate: or in the warming period of fundamentals and policies-- A series of studies on the highway industry (1)", we point out that there is a correlation between the change of PB of highway companies and the trend of local GDP growth. It is recommended that the trend of low PB and PB has not followed the local GDP growth rate, and the targets that may have room for repair in the future include Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway (PB 0.96).

3) it is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2017-19 is 0.37,0.39 and 0.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15.4,14.8 and 12.8 times respectively. The highway industry average PB1.5 times, PE16 times, the company is the only broken net stock, in view of the future capital expenditure is coming to an end, multiple assets contribution strong support and the basis of future transformation, the incentive plan combines the management, backbone and the company's long-term interests, the establishment of a long-term mechanism is expected to release operational vitality and maintain the "strong push" rating.

5. Risk Tips:

The economic recovery is not as expected, and the progress of land development projects is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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赣粤高速(600269)半年报点评：扣非净利润增长17.6% 看好低PB估值继续修复

Comments on the semi-annual report of Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway (600269): deducting the growth of non-net profit by 17.6% is optimistic that the low PB valuation will continue to be repaired.

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