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天药股份(600488)首次覆盖:乘行业整合东风 国内龙头迈向世界

瑞銀證券 ·  Feb 1, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Taking advantage of the trend of industry integration, from domestic leaders to the world, along with rising raw materials and environmental costs, the global corticosteroid API market is being consolidated at an accelerated pace. We judge that domestic small and medium-sized enterprises will gradually be eliminated from the market due to their technical strength and scale; foreign enterprises will also gradually reduce production capacity due to environmental protection and development strategies. As a leader in the domestic industry, the company is expected to take advantage of industry integration and grow into a global leader in corticosteroid APIs. The scale and technical advantages are obvious, and the company's interests are maximized. We believe that the company's size and technical advantages are obvious, have a strong influence on the industry, and can guarantee the maximization of the company's interests. In terms of technology, Tianyao is the only company in China that can industrialize the “sterol path” at this stage. Compared with the “saponin path,” the cost advantage is obvious. We have determined that since the company can switch between the two paths, it has the ability to keep saponin prices high to hinder competitors while at the same time relying on the sterol path to expand its advantage over competitors. However, due to its obvious scale advantage, the company has a strong influence on upstream raw material procurement and downstream sales customers. The product structure is upgraded to the high-end, driving the company's profitability. We believe that while participating in industry integration, the company's product structure will also be rapidly upgraded to the high-end, which in turn will drive increased profitability: 1) After completing the relocation in 10 years, the company has increased its efforts to standardize market development, and its market share in European and American countries is expected to increase rapidly in the future; 2) The majority shareholder Jinyao Group strengthens its pharmaceutical business, including cooperating with foreign companies to produce high-end powder inhalers, etc., Tianyao Co., Ltd. will benefit significantly as an API supplier; 3) the company will begin exporting water-testing formulations, 6- methylnylprednisolone, etc. The US certification of the product is progressing smoothly, and once approved, it will contribute additional performance to the company. Valuation: A “buy” rating was given for the first time, with a target price of 7.8 yuan for 12 months. We forecast the company's 2012-2014 EPS to be 0.19, 0.27, and 0.34 yuan. Based on the UBS VCAM model, the target price was 7.8 yuan (WACC is 9.5%). Give a “buy” rating.

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