Main points of investment:
The company's 2012 revenue is in line with our expectations. In 2012, the company's revenue increased by 5% 15% year-on-year, in line with our expectations (we expect revenue to increase by 10% year-on-year to 5.639 billion yuan in 12 years). The reason is mainly due to the gradual maturity of the operation and management of subsidiary stores in the company's key agricultural machinery sales markets outside the province (such as Yunnan, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Chongqing and other places), and a substantial increase in agricultural machinery business sales compared with the same period last year.
In 2012, the company's attributable net profit decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, which was lower than we expected. Reason: ① construction machinery business lost money in 12 years. Due to the impact of the slowdown of macro-economic growth and the cyclical adjustment of the industry, the company's sales volume of construction machinery business has dropped significantly, while bearing higher labor management costs.
The cost of ② increased greatly compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, the scale of subsidies for agricultural machinery on behalf of the company has increased, resulting in a continuous increase in the scale and cost of financing from banks and other financial institutions, and an increase in financial expenses over the same period last year; on the other hand, the increase in the number of employees and changes in structural marketing and management personnel have led to a significant increase in operating and management expenses such as compensation, travel, office and training.
The proportion of minority shareholders in ③ has increased relatively. The regional sales performance of the main cascade holding subsidiaries outside the province has gradually increased, and the cascade holding investment structure has led to a relative increase in the proportion of minority shareholders, resulting in dilution of the rights and interests belonging to listed companies to a certain extent.
Q4 in 2012, the company's cash flow situation is expected to continue to improve. Q4 in 12 years, the company increased the intensity of cash return at the end of the year by reducing the scale of cash buyout inventory and improving the rebate policy to subordinate agents and end-users. The cash flow of Q4 company is expected to continue the improvement trend of Q2 and Q3.
In the past 13 years, the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery is expected to change, that is, from the original "differential purchase" and "index system" to "full purchase" and "GSP", which will have a far-reaching impact on the agricultural machinery circulation industry.
Profit forecast: reduce the company's 12-year EPS to 0.06,0.13 and 0.19 yuan in 14 years. It is expected that the company will step up its efforts to reverse losses in the construction machinery business and cost control in 13 years, and the 13-year performance is expected to achieve high growth. Maintain the previous point of view: ① due to the impact of macroeconomic and corporate strategic changes, 12 years will be a year of penance, 13 years of corporate performance is expected to achieve high growth; ② company's future growth to become the king of China's agricultural machinery circulation trend will not change; ③ company is the theme of agricultural modernization, as well as the theme of urbanization excellent investment target, short-term company stock prices rose greatly, the valuation is expensive, it is suggested to avoid for the time being.