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华鼎锦纶(601113)年报点评:业绩下滑符合预期

安信證券 ·  Mar 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Net profit declined sharply year on year: during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1771.39 million yuan, up 1.67% year on year, and the company realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 76.14 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of 0.12 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.39%. Among them, the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 424.21 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 14.71 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.63%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 38.26 million yuan, equivalent to an EPS of 0.06 yuan, an increase of 371.32% year-on-year and a year-on-month increase of 281.45%. Low nylon prices dragged down performance: In 2012, the entire chemical fiber industry was affected by the downturn in domestic and foreign economic conditions, and demand was weak. With the launch of the fund-raising project, the company's production and sales volume increased throughout the year. The sales volume in 2012 increased by 21.02% year on year. However, due to the decline in the overall price level of the nylon industry, actual unit product prices fell year on year, and the price drop offset the impact of the increase in sales volume. In 2012, the average price of nylon DTY and FDY fell by 18% and 20% respectively. Performance growth in 2013 was limited: We judge that the price of nylon in 20123 was basically the same as in 2012, and the bottlenecks in raw material supply are beginning to show signs of abating. However, since the company's new projects will not be able to produce benefits in 2013 for the time being, the influencing factors of changes in the company's performance in 2013 will be very sensitive to prices, and the increase in performance in 2013 is expected to be limited. Investment advice: Neutral-A investment rating, target price of 4.5 yuan for 6 months. We expect the company's revenue growth rates from 2013 to 2015 to be -0.9%, 33.2%, and 24.9% respectively, and net profit growth rates of 0.8%, 31.1%, and 37.2% respectively, maintaining a neutral-A investment rating. The six-month target price is 4.5 yuan, which is equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 37 times in 2013. Risk warning: nylon prices have declined sharply

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