The transformation of transportation service providers to modern services
The existing business sectors of Volkswagen include transportation services, real estate, finance and equity investment. The company's latest strategy is to shift the allocation of resources to modern service industries and reduce the proportion of labor-intensive industries. The company also plans to increase investment in the financial industry.
Logistics service efficiency is expected to be improved
Thanks to the company's strategic transformation ideas and resource tilt policies, public transportation is expected to catch up with the logistics reform tide represented by "Cainiao Network", give full play to its terminal network and user data advantages, and continue to improve the efficiency of logistics services.
High-quality assets are expected to be revalued
The transfer of the taxi license by Johnson & Johnson Holdings has set a value benchmark for the company's license plate assets (a premium of 1.616 billion yuan); the rental rate after the renovation of the Volkswagen Building may be raised and lead the market to revalue its assets (a premium of 540 million yuan); as the opening of the A-share IPO gate is approaching, the market may pay attention to the appreciation space of the company's equity investments such as Guotai Junan Securities (the premium is more than 1.94 billion yuan).
Profit forecast
We assume that the company conducts earnings management cautiously and that EPS is stable at around 0.25 yuan from 2013 to 2015. Considering our subjective judgment on earnings management, we do not use PE as the basis of valuation.
Valuation and investment advice
If the implicit premium is taken into account, the company's net worth will increase to 10.09 billion yuan. According to the calculation of 1 times PB, the reasonable share price of Volkswagen should be no less than 6.40 yuan. We set the reasonable valuation range of the stock at 6.00 yuan-7.20 yuan. The first rating is "recommended".
Risk hint
The performance of taxis and real estate was lower than expected; Guotai Junan Securities failed to be listed smoothly.
