The basic situation of Heyuan Fruit Industry: Heyuan Fruit Industry, a subsidiary of Guannong Co., Ltd., was established in April 2012. In August 2012, its Xinjiang bulk Agricultural products Trading Network was officially launched. At the same time, two other platforms to be developed are expected to open in August, namely the window of the Corps and the Xinjiang Agricultural products Information Network. The former is the platform for wholesale distribution and delivery of agricultural products in Xinjiang, while the latter is the information exchange service platform for major agricultural products in Xinjiang.
If the profit of Heyuan fruit industry can reach 1 billion, the core of its profit is the "class exchange": 1. There are two varieties in the trading network that have realized continuous trading. At present, the average daily trading volume is more than 2 billion yuan, and it is expected that 13 varieties may be put online. The annual trading volume is expected to reach the trillion level, and the contributed income can reach 500 to 1 billion yuan. 2. The profit of bingtuan window comes from listing transaction, special transaction fee (0.5% each), physical delivery fee and rent. As the scale of agricultural products in Xinjiang is 100 billion yuan, considering its market share of 10% and turnover rate, the contribution income can reach 300 million yuan to 400 million yuan. 3. The profit of the information network comes from the registration fee and the seller's advertising bidding fee, but it is expected to only cover the cost, and the contribution to the profit may not be significant. 4. Heyuan Fruit Industry's important profit contribution is expected to come from the spot continuous trading, listing trading and special trading of "class exchanges". The net interest rate is relatively high, and the net profit is expected to reach 1 billion.
Xinjiang agricultural products trading network policy risk less reasons: 1, Xinjiang has passed the acceptance of exchange rectification; 2, the State Council documents are aimed at medium-and long-term trading of rights and interests and commodities, and the platform is engaged in spot transactions; 3, bingtuan leaders at all levels support the platform; 4, the platform is selected as one of the top 100 e-commerce demonstration enterprises of the Ministry of Commerce; 5, the recognition of financial institutions that provide capital settlement.
Give the company a buy-A rating and a target price of 29 yuan: the main business will basically break even this year, and we expect net profit per share from 2013 to 2015 to be 1.12 yuan, 1.20 yuan and 1.93 yuan, respectively. The current share price is 20 times what it was in 2013, which provides the company with a margin of safety. And if the profit of Heyuan Fruit Industry will be 1 billion, and we give it 30 times Phammer E, then the market capitalization of Heyuan Fruit Industry will be 30 billion yuan. At present, Guanyuan shares hold a 25% stake in Heyuan Fruit Co., Ltd., assuming that the probability of success in five years is 50% and the discount rate is 10%, then Heyuan Fruit Industry will contribute 2.8 billion yuan to the market value of Guanyuan Fruit shares. As of July 29, the market value of Guannong shares is 8 billion yuan, and Heyuan Fruit Industry's market capitalization is 35%. The current share price is 21.98 yuan, so we give the company a target price of 29 yuan and a buy-A rating. On the whole, we believe that the company has both a margin of safety and an upward space.
There are upward catalysts for future fundamentals: 1, new varieties of trading online; 2, the window of the Corps and the online information network; 3, the increase in the retention proportion of the trading network; 4, the increase in the proportion of shares held by crown farmers in Heyuan fruit industry; 5. The National Development and Reform Commission gives the trading network e-commerce pilot.
Risk hint: after the launch of new varieties, the trading volume is not up to expectations and the policy risks existing in the trading network.