Main points of investment:
The settlement volume of the Qinglin Bay project boosted the performance by 47.28%.
On the evening of August 15, the company disclosed that in 2013, the company reported that its operating income was about 1.605 billion yuan, up 9.61% from the same period last year; the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was about 240 million yuan, up 47.28% from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share was 0.166 yuan. The reason why the company's net profit growth rate was significantly higher than the revenue growth rate during the reporting period was that the real estate settlement gross profit margin rose 33.7 percentage points year-on-year to 65.4%, and the Qinglin Bay project (2-5) was the main force.
The sales of commercial housing from January to June were nearly 1.6 billion, an increase of 57.18% over the same period last year.
The amount of commercial housing sales of the company from January to June was 1.575 billion yuan, an increase of 57.18% compared with 1.002 billion yuan in the same period of 12 years. Among them, Qinglin Bay (6-7) and Villa Town II are the main forces, with sales of about 680 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively. We expect that the company's main sales projects in the second half of the year are Qinglin Bay (Phase 6-7), Qinglin Bay (Phase 8, expected new projects), Villa Town Phase II, and so on. It is optimistically estimated that the total salable value is more than 4 billion yuan, and the corresponding commercial housing sales amount is about 2 billion yuan, which makes the company's annual commercial housing sales amount at about 3.5 billion yuan.
The balance of the accounts received in advance at the end of the period is 3.88 billion yuan, and the 13-year performance is guaranteed.
At the end of June, the balance of accounts received in advance of the company's real estate business was about 3.88 billion yuan, up 33.8% from 2.9 billion yuan at the beginning of the year. Among them, the amount of accounts received in advance that can be settled in 13 years is about 1.2 billion yuan, making the indemnificatory income of the company's real estate business at the end of June nearly 1.8 billion yuan, which is 60% of the company's expected settlement income of the real estate business for the whole year. Combined with the sales revenue forecast of 2 billion yuan in the second half of the year, we think that the company has a higher guarantee degree to achieve the forecast income of 3 billion yuan in the real estate industry for the whole year.
Maintain a "buy" rating
We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2013 to 2015 is 0.50,0.62 and 0.78 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 8.4,6.8 and 5.4 times, respectively. With the regional economic development and the promotion of new urbanization in Ningbo, we are relatively optimistic about the real estate market in Ningbo, and the company will benefit from it as a real estate company with land potential advantages. We maintain the company's "buy" investment rating.
The uncertainty of commercial housing sales suggests that if the push time, volume and removal rate of Qinglin Bay (Phase 8) do not meet expectations, it will affect our judgment of 3.5 billion of the company's annual commercial housing sales income.
