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建新股份(300107)三季报点评:基本面向好趋势延续 涨价预期仍然存在

廣發證券 ·  Oct 22, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Core point of view: Incident Company publishes 3 quarterly reports. In the 1-3 quarter, it achieved operating income of 295 million yuan, an increase of 14.6% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 22.45 million, an increase of 56.8% over the previous year; and achieved earnings of 0.17 yuan per share. In the third quarter in a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 106 million yuan, up 21.4% year on year and 26.1% month on month; realized net profit attributable to parent company was 17.76 million, up 253.2% year on year and 2973.7% month on month. In other words, the quarterly net profit for the third quarter increased 2.5 times year on year and 29.7 times over the same period last month. Comment (1) Four factors led to a significant increase in performance. Factor 1: Environmental protection has led to a contraction in industry supply. Factor 2: Fund-raising projects contribute to increased sales. Factor 3: Increased product prices. Factor 4: Decrease in environmental costs and increase in profitability. (2) Downstream acceptance of the increase in product prices of Jianxin Co., Ltd. continues to increase, and downstream demand has restorative growth expectations (3) the scale advantage further enhances environmental advantages; the environmental cost advantage of Indian competitors gradually disappears (4) the third-quarter results confirm the upward investment logic of fundamental inflection points (5) Product prices are still expected to rise. Basically, the positive trend will continue with profit forecasts and investment suggestions. We estimate that the company's 2013-2015 EPS was 0.45 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The following factors are comprehensively considered: (1) the company's dominant position in the “inter-amino industry chain”; (2) environmental inspections are becoming stricter and smaller production capacity is being eliminated; (3) product prices in the inter-amino industry chain are expected to rise as industry concentration continues to increase; (4) capital investment projects are put into operation to provide an increase in production capacity; (5) demand areas with high added value downstream continue to expand. Based on this, the company was given a “buy” rating. Risk warning 1. Production pollution incidents; 2. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish; 3. Core product advantages disappear.

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